Cognitive Dissidents

The Cognitive Dissidents podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events! Hosted by Jacob Shapiro (and occasionally Rob Larity). Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Chartable - https://chartable.com/privacy Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Cognitive Dissidents

Fri Dec 01 2023

Okay But... What IS Geopolitics?

geopoliticsclassical geopoliticsLatin AmericatheoriesSouth America

The podcast episode features Phil Kelly, a geopolitical expert, discussing classical geopolitics and the geopolitics of Latin America. The conversation delves into the nuances of geopolitics, theories, different schools of thought, and the potential of South America as a heartland. It also explores the contrasts and patterns in South American geopolitics, alliances, conflicts, climate change, and future trends in global migration.

Cognitive Dissidents

Tue Nov 28 2023

Remapping Global Supply Chains

ArgentinaVenezuelaOil PricesChinaCritical Mineral Supply Chains

The podcast episode discusses insights on Argentina, Venezuela, and oil prices in 2024 and beyond. It covers topics such as Argentina's recent election, China's dominance in critical mineral supply chains, US-Indonesia relations, US foreign policy towards Venezuela, Iran's oil production, and market uncertainty in the energy sector.

Cognitive Dissidents

Fri Nov 24 2023

Strategic Intelligence Lessons for Decision-Makers

intelligence failuresdecision-makingIsraelHamaspsychology

The podcast episode discusses the psychology of intelligence failures and how to apply intelligence techniques to business and investing. It explores the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as a case study for drawing strategic intelligence lessons. The failure in intelligence collection during the conflict is attributed to an overwhelming amount of information and flawed interpretation. Historical intelligence failures, such as the Yom Kippur War and the September 11th attacks, are analyzed. The episode also delves into Israel's intelligence failure, concerns about its future, and strategies for effective intelligence analysis.

Cognitive Dissidents

Mon Nov 20 2023

Demystifying Chips, US-China Relations, & Intellectual Property

supply chain diversificationgovernment policiesAI regulationsemiconductor industryEVs

This episode explores the challenges and complexities of diversifying supply chains away from China, the impact of government policies on AI regulation, and the future of the semiconductor industry. It also delves into the strained relationship between the US and China, the role of export controls, and the battleground of EVs and green technology.

Cognitive Dissidents

Sat Nov 18 2023

Playing Golf (Probably) Won’t Make You a Better Investor

US-China relationsTaiwanForeign policyInvestingPsychological mindset

This episode covers a range of topics including US-China relations, Taiwan, foreign policy approaches, active vs passive investing, and psychological mindset in decision-making. It also touches on upcoming elections in Argentina and protests in Madrid.

Cognitive Dissidents

Mon Nov 13 2023

The Implosion of Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine WarPolandGeopoliticsLeadership QualitiesDeterrence

The podcast episode features a conversation between Jacob Shapiro and Yautic Bartoschak about the Russia-Ukraine war and Poland's future in that context. The recent election in Poland may not change much from a broader macro geopolitical perspective, as leaders come and go while geopolitics remains consistent. There is a feeling in Warsaw that the world is becoming more chaotic and less predictable, making leadership qualities more important than specific programs or campaign promises. Despite this, there is optimism for Poland's future due to Russia's weakness and Germany's lack of influence. However, proper leadership and luck are necessary for success.

Cognitive Dissidents

Fri Nov 10 2023

Something Rotten In The State of Ukraine

Bureaucratic Red TapePolitical CohesionSocial MediaTax ReformTariffs

The podcast episode is shorter than usual and focuses on admitting what the hosts don't know. Topics discussed include bureaucratic red tape hindering nuclear development in the US, political cohesion and infrastructure projects, social media's influence on information flow, tax reform in Brazil, tariffs and the Ukraine conflict, uncertainty in Ukraine and Russia, and market risks and debt-related stress.

Cognitive Dissidents

Wed Nov 08 2023

Nile to Negev: Hafsa Halawa’s Take on Regional Turmoil

Israeli-Palestinian ConflictRegional RisksChallenges in IsraelChanging DynamicsHumanitarian Crisis in Gaza

This episode covers the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, regional risks, challenges in Israel, changing dynamics, humanitarian crisis in Gaza, escalation and violence in Sudan, challenges faced by Egypt, and the conflict in Ethiopia. The conversation explores various perspectives on these topics and highlights the complexities involved.

Cognitive Dissidents

Mon Nov 06 2023

Hard Times in the 21st Century w/ Helen Thompson

geopoliticsenergytransatlantic relationshipGermanyEuropean Union

Professor Helen Thompson discusses her book "Hard Times in the 21st Century" which explores major events of the 2010s, including Brexit, Trump's election, and the failed coup in Turkey. The book provides a long history and understanding of these events, focusing on geopolitical dynamics, energy relationships, challenges in transatlantic relationships, Germany's historical energy challenges, energy and the European Union, Turkey's role in geopolitics, economic nationhood and geopolitical challenges, geopolitical factors and domestic politics, and struggles of democracy and nationhood.

Cognitive Dissidents

Fri Nov 03 2023

Monopolies and Innovation

Jerome PowellInterest RatesASMLSemiconductor Supply ChainEV Market

The episode covers various topics including Jerome Powell's recent Fed statement, interest rates and economic outlook, ASML and the semiconductor supply chain, the EV market and Toyota's approach, geopolitical investing and Mexico's potential, Mexican manufacturing and Saudi Arabia's economic performance, and investment opportunities and global developments.

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