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    Odd Lots

    Odd Lots

    Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

    Odd Lots

    Fri Jul 26 2024

    A Top Miami Broker on the Booming Market for Ultra-Luxury Homes

    direct lendingluxury real estateMiamiwealthy individualscommission structure

    Direct lending has become a major source of capital for corporate borrowers and financial sponsors. Luxury real estate markets in cities like Dubai, New York City, Los Angeles, Aspen, and Miami cater to the ultra-rich with branded apartment buildings and luxury condos. Miami's appeal to wealthy individuals has increased due to tax advantages, homestead benefits, good weather, and improved arts and entertainment offerings. The realtor focuses on single-family homes, waterfront homes, and top condos in each building, with developers pursuing them for buyers. Luxury buyers in Miami are not deterred by increasing insurance costs, with some willing to pay higher premiums without impacting their purchasing decisions. The speaker discusses the current commission structure in real estate and potential impacts of upcoming changes. Instagram is being used for property inquiries and tours, which was unexpected a few years ago. Miami and Palm Beach are major competitors in the real estate market, especially for Latin American and Asian buyers.

    Odd Lots

    Thu Jul 25 2024

    How the Hottest Hedge Funds on Wall Street Really Manage Risk

    hedge fundsinvestment approachesmulti-strategy fundsfactor investingrisk management

    The episode discusses multi-strategy hedge funds, different investment approaches, success factors in multi-strategy funds, diversification and idea generation, factor investing and risk management, stock selection and risk management, leveraging alpha and quantitative models, and empowering portfolio managers. It highlights the complexity of hedge fund operations, the importance of deep research and modeling in stock picking, and the evolving role of quantitative models in generating attractive risk-adjusted returns. The episode also explores the challenges of risk management and the growing demand for advanced tools and insights in the industry.

    Odd Lots

    Mon Jul 22 2024

    The US and China Are in an All Out Race For AI Domination

    AIChinaSemiconductorManufacturingUS-China Competition

    The episode discusses the strategic importance of AI, Chinese investment in semiconductor and AI ecosystems, AI adoption in China's manufacturing industry, China's semiconductor ecosystem and US export controls, the technology gap and cloud wars, the open source community and global AI governance, and power consumption and national versions of AI models.

    Odd Lots

    Fri Jul 19 2024

    Lots More on JD Vance and the Future of the US Dollar

    U.S. dollarreserve currency statusforeign influencetrade deficitstariff policies

    The episode discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status on the American economy, foreign influence on trade deficits, complexities of addressing trade deficits, impacts of aggressive tariff policies, and universal tariffs' effect on the workforce.

    Odd Lots

    Thu Jul 18 2024

    A Guggenheim Executive's Radical Plan to Build Millions of New Homes

    Federal ReserveHousing AffordabilityAIGFinancial RescueFannie Mae

    The episode discusses the challenges of housing affordability due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, the financial rescue of AIG during the 2008 crisis, the history and reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the role of government-sponsored entities in mortgage credit risk, the shortage of housing units and frozen construction finance market, the potential for mezzanine financing to address housing shortage, the market for mezzanine lending and ending conservatorships, and the political challenges in addressing housing issues.

    Odd Lots

    Mon Jul 15 2024

    Stephen Roach Warns of Disaster From Our 'Sinophobic' China Policy

    direct lendingtrade tensionseconomic modelsrisks in U.S.-China relationsChina's economic policies

    Direct lending, trade tensions with Japan and China, economic models, risks in U.S.-China relations, China's economic policies and challenges, challenges in Hong Kong, and lessons from history shape current trade tensions between China and the US.

    Odd Lots

    Fri Jul 12 2024

    James van Geelen on Thematic Investing Right Now

    thematic investingAImarket uncertaintysocial interactionspresidential elections

    Thematic investing in the current market is influenced by factors like the U.S. presidential elections, stock market direction, and economic tensions. Investors face tough choices with polar opposite outcomes depending on various scenarios. AI has various use cases, and Apple is positioned to lead in AI due to its focus on privacy and consumer trust. The shift towards miniaturizing AI models for inference on devices is crucial, but privacy concerns arise with real-time inference capabilities. Upgrading technology became less important over time, leading to a discussion on the impact of new capabilities on social interactions. Thematic equity can easily turn into momentum investing as themes translate into market momentum. Preparation for events like the US presidential elections from an investment perspective should start early. Constructing investment strategies around themes such as electrification, infrastructure spending, and political policies is important. Performance of equities during different presidencies can be influenced by bigger forces at work, not just the president. Specific companies may benefit regardless of election outcomes. Diversification at the security level but concentration in thematic investments is a strategy used by the speaker. Applying second-order thinking can lead to unique investment opportunities. Unexpected events can have ripple effects on markets. Uncertainty can impact investment theses, as seen with recent Supreme Court decisions affecting water scarcity investments. Thematic investing relies on cultural touchstones and moments of significance for success. The Chevron deference ruling has significant impacts on policy-making and thematic investing. Uncertainty around the enforceability of EPA rules affects thematic investors. Social media plays a role in creating awareness about emerging contaminants. Questions arise about the sustainability of business investments in AI and whether they will result in tangible revenues. Revolutionary technologies often lead to excess capital expenditure, which may seem wasteful in hindsight. Investors need to constantly evaluate and reallocate investments based on changing opportunities and market narratives. The combination of attractive pricing and a compelling narrative is crucial for successful thematic investments. The impact of tariffs on products priced at $5 and below is discussed. The hosts mention a significant drop in stock price within a few months. Thematic investing focuses on cultural touchstones and clear ideas. The episode explores the impact of tariffs, the Chevron deference ruling, and historical examples like the railway mania.

    Odd Lots

    Thu Jul 11 2024

    Joseph Stiglitz on How to Build Shock-Proof Supply Chains

    direct lendingsupply chain resiliencelong-term thinkinglegislationglobal trade

    This episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast explores the topics of direct lending, supply chain resilience, promoting long-term thinking, legislation for resilience planning, global trade and economic frameworks, critiques of neoliberalism, well-being and global economic institutions, and crisis rectification. The hosts discuss their experiences studying international relations and the impact of certain books on their understanding of global issues. Professor Joseph Stiglitz shares insights on supply chains and financial interdependence, emphasizing the need for resilient markets. The episode concludes with information about the podcast and recommendations for further content.

    Odd Lots

    Mon Jul 08 2024

    MMT's Godfather Says the US Government Is Spending Like a Drunken Sailor

    interest ratesinflationgovernment spendingfiscal policyeconomy

    This episode explores the relationship between interest rates, government spending, and inflation. It delves into the impact of higher rates on inflation and the economy, the role of fiscal policy in shaping the economy, and the consequences of government spending on prices. The episode also discusses the influence of interest rates on personal wealth and the experiences of economist Warren Mosler.

    Odd Lots

    Fri Jul 05 2024

    Lots More With Stinson Dean on Crashing Lumber Prices

    direct lendingmarket trendslumber industryjob market

    This episode explores the direct lending industry's growth, market trends, challenges faced by the lumber industry, and the impact on the job market. It highlights the importance of storage strategies in navigating market fluctuations and discusses the shift in power dynamics between employers and employees. The episode concludes by noting the impact on businesses, with lumber being the exception.

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