Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance

Tue May 28 2024

Jack Ryan on The Housing Cartel That's Stifling The American Economy

residential real estatefeesanti-competitive practicesZillowMLS

This episode explores the high fees and anti-competitive practices in the residential real estate business. It discusses the impact of these practices on buyers, sellers, and various industries connected to real estate. The role of platforms like Zillow and the legal actions taken against them are also examined. Additionally, the episode delves into the influence of regulatory bodies and lobbying efforts in the realtor industry.

Forward Guidance

Thu May 23 2024

James Fishback: Inside The “Head Of Macro” Dispute That Has Captivated The Hedge Fund World

Legal BattlePromotionsMacro Derivatives TradingTreatment Upon LeavingGenerating Trading Ideas

This episode features an interview with James Fishback, the former head of macro at Greenlight Capital. Fishback discusses his legal battle with Greenlight, promotions and responsibilities at the firm, expertise in macro derivatives trading, treatment upon leaving Greenlight, generating and executing trading ideas, dispute over title and legal actions, defending position as head of macro, disagreement over running the macro department, defending track record and decision to leave, starting Azoria Capital and legal threats, separating politics from investing, impact of Fed's monetary policy, factors contributing to economic conditions, impact of Federal Reserve's actions, market opportunities and trade policy, trading strategies and risk management, investing in companies with AI advantage, market instability and investment philosophy.

Forward Guidance

Mon May 20 2024

Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes

monetary systemstock marketbanking systemsocial security fundinggold

Mel Madison discusses the future of the monetary system and predicts a potential asset bubble collapse. Historical events, stock market bubbles, banking risks, and social security funding are explored. The role of gold in the monetary system and a financial thriller novel set in 2027 are also discussed.

Forward Guidance

Thu May 16 2024

Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Historically Unattractive” To Leveraged Investors

InvestingEquitiesBondsMarket ConditionsCentral Banks

This episode covers insights on investing in equities vs bonds, the current market conditions, the role of central banks, the yield curve, and potential recession scenarios. It also discusses the ECB's rate cut plans, GameStop's impact on the bond market, and investment strategies involving equities and cash.

Forward Guidance

Tue May 14 2024

Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker

CurrenciesInvestment PortfoliosGlobal Economic PoliciesInterest RatesFinancial Markets

Currencies play a crucial role in investment portfolios and can impact performance and risk management. Understanding the historical context of global economic policies like Bretton Woods is essential for analyzing current market trends. Long-term interest rates have significant effects on financial markets, with central banks using various strategies like QE to influence them. The suppression of global yield curves by central banks has led to distorted price discovery in bond markets and other asset classes. Low interest rates over the past decades have inflated financial markets, encouraged excessive borrowing, and delayed necessary adjustments. Central bankers are facing stress as interest rates rise, impacting government and household deficits. Global economies are synchronized in their financial challenges, leading to potential market risks. The US dollar is a key safe haven for global capital during market uncertainties. Allocating client capital involves considering the dollar as a hedge against risk assets. Currency strategies, like being long USD and short other currencies, can help dampen downside risk for portfolios. Having an allocation to currency strategy is crucial for financial health and resilience during market downturns.

Forward Guidance

Thu May 09 2024

Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case

central bank interest rate hikesprivate sectorinterest ratesmortgagescorporate borrowing

The episode covers the impact of central bank interest rate hikes on the private sector, immediate effects of interest rate hikes on mortgages and corporate borrowing, government deficits and private sector surplus, bond market reactions and trading strategies, factors affecting interest rate sensitivity and US GDP growth forecast, market reactions to disappointing nominal GDP growth, trading strategies in low macro volatility scenarios, odds of recession and market reactions, market expectations and perceived opportunities, and trading strategies and hedge fund launch.

Forward Guidance

Mon May 06 2024

Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It

economicsUS Treasurybond marketterm premiumsasset valuations

This episode covers various topics including the current economic script, US Treasury and bond market dynamics, term premiums and asset valuations, correlations between stocks and bonds, key insights, the Fed Tracker tool and gold prices, US interest rates and global markets, quantitative tightening, and different financial products.

Forward Guidance

Thu May 02 2024

Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle

China's EconomyCurrency DevaluationEconomic FocusDebt CycleNominal Growth

This episode covers various topics including the impact of silver discovery in Bolivia on China's economy, China's approach to currency devaluation, China's shift in economic focus, the long-term debt cycle and government deficit spending, nominal growth, interest rates, and federal tax collections, inflation measurement and rent prices, disparities in the real estate market and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potential impact of US presidential election on economic policies, labor market, inflation, and fiscal dominance, investment strategies for inflation hedge, gold as a hedge against inflation and Japan's economic challenges, exchange rates, interest rates, and equity investments, and inflation, interest rates, and financial sector investments.

Forward Guidance

Wed May 01 2024

Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024

Federal ReserveMonetary PolicyJob MarketEconomic IndicatorsRecession

This episode covers Federal Reserve Chair Powell's press conference, rate cuts, revisions in job numbers, weakening labor market, recession indicators, national ISM report, consumer spending, job cuts, insolvency phase, regulation and monetary policy, political meddling, fiscal outlook, fiscal dominance, and economic indicators.

Forward Guidance

Tue Apr 30 2024

The Crypto Endgame in 2024 | Fireside Chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund

Crypto InvestingDeFiNFTsHelium NetworkBitcoin Cycles

This episode covers Pranad Conade's journey into crypto investing, exploring DeFi and NFTs, the Helium network and Bitcoin cycles, success metrics and market dynamics, Vib, NX Digital Asset Fund and market conditions, Bitcoin as a risk asset and crypto investments, crypto's potential and tokenizing assets, tokenizing assets and common mistakes, the altcoin market and promising concepts, patience and future possibilities.

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