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    Forward Guidance

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Forward Guidance

    Tue Jul 23 2024

    How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)

    activist treasury issuancemonetary policyquantitative easinginterest ratescentral bank independence

    The episode explores the impact of activist treasury issuance on monetary policy, comparing it to quantitative easing. It discusses the risks and concerns associated with this unconventional fiscal policy and its potential effects on central bank independence. The fragility of the housing market and consequences of activist treasury issuance are also examined. The merging of monetary and fiscal policy is analyzed, highlighting the shift towards unconventional fiscal policies in normal economic conditions. The episode concludes with insights on returning to regular and predictable Treasury issuance for long-term economic stability.

    Forward Guidance

    Mon Jul 22 2024

    Banks Are Cleaning House Of Their Bad Assets | Chris Whalen

    banking industryCOVID challengescommercial real estaterisk managementregulations

    The episode covers various topics related to the banking industry, including performance trends, challenges faced during COVID, regulations, commercial real estate issues, risk management strategies, and future outlook. Key insights include the impact of interest rate fluctuations on banks, the role of risk-sharing transactions in managing duration, challenges in commercial real estate due to defaults and rent control policies, and regulatory challenges faced by financial institutions. The episode also discusses the importance of private credit transactions, the potential changes in bank regulations under President Trump's second term, and the use of synthetic risk transfers in repositioning bank assets.

    Forward Guidance

    Thu Jul 18 2024

    China Is Exporting Unemployment | Michael Pettis on Global Trade Imbalances, American Capital Controls, and the End of The Chinese Growth Miracle

    Chinese EconomyRebalancingTrade ImbalancesCapital InflowsManufacturing Sector

    The episode discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese economy in rebalancing from an investment-driven growth model to a consumption-driven one. It explores the impact of trade imbalances, capital inflows, and industrial policies on both China and the United States. The episode also delves into the role of manufacturing sectors, tariffs, and the Chinese banking system in shaping global economic dynamics.

    Forward Guidance

    Mon Jul 15 2024

    Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle

    EconomyConsumer SpendingStock MarketInvestingAI Technology

    This episode covers concerns about the economy's growth rate, recession, and inflation volatility. It discusses the slowdown in consumer spending and its impact on the economy. The stock market, investing strategies, valuations, and concerns about AI technology are also explored. Additionally, it delves into long term interest rates, the Japanese market, and China's growth potential. Challenges in Chinese real estate and the credit crunch are analyzed. Finally, risks in private credit and their impact on the economy are discussed.

    Forward Guidance

    Thu Jul 11 2024

    Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic

    railroad industryrail industry consolidationintermodal marketintermodal transportairline industry

    The episode covers various topics related to the railroad and airline industries. It discusses the freight demand for railroads, consolidation in the rail industry, challenges in the intermodal market, intermodal transport and airline demand, labor costs and fuel prices in the airline industry, airline industry recovery and challenges, impacts of government assistance on airlines, stock buybacks and premium seats in airlines, business models and engine suppliers in airlines, aerospace industry and capacity constraints, global airline operations and economic impact.

    Forward Guidance

    Mon Jul 08 2024

    Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg

    Chinese economyChinese property marketConsumer spendingChinese equitiesChinese brands

    This episode covers various aspects of the Chinese economy, including the background of an investor in China, the challenges in the Chinese property market, the impact on consumption and global brands, the shift in consumer preferences, comparison between Chinese and American equities, short reports on companies, labor market challenges, delisting of Didi, investment strategies and Chinese dominance, Chinese companies in the global market, China's economic strength and regulatory scrutiny, consumer debt and private equity market, stimulus measures and ETF differentiation, and investment approach and avoiding geopolitical risks.

    Forward Guidance

    Tue Jul 02 2024

    BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans

    Economic ForecastingRisksRecoveryTechnologyDebt

    The episode covers various topics related to economic forecasting, risks, recovery, technology, debt, labor, and geopolitical impacts. It emphasizes the importance of narrative analysis, judgment-based approaches, and getting the narrative right in economic trends. The discussions highlight the challenges of predicting recessions accurately, the impact of false alarms, and the role of policymakers in shaping recovery prospects. The episode also explores the relationship between technology, productivity, and labor displacement, as well as the implications of geopolitical conflicts on economies.

    Forward Guidance

    Thu Jun 27 2024

    “Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

    US EconomyLabor MarketInflationFederal ReserveMonetary Policy

    Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, discusses his evolving view on the US economy and the risks he sees in the labor market. Inflationary pressures in the job market have slowed down, with compensation growth aligning with Fed's inflation objectives. The Federal Reserve is being reactive to incoming data, which may lead to risks in their decision-making process. There is uncertainty surrounding the Fed's hawkish stance based on past data from the first quarter. The importance of taking a holistic view of economic data and seeking corroborating evidence is emphasized. Consumer attitudes towards labor markets remain positive despite some weaknesses in the economy. The main risk to the markets and economy over the summer is the Fed being slow to cut rates. The importance of having a fundamental framework for analyzing data and making predictions is emphasized. Survey data indicates the economy is slowing but not collapsing.

    Forward Guidance

    Tue Jun 25 2024

    Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced

    macro tradercryptoBitcoininternational commercecommodity transactions

    This episode covers a macro trader's perspective on crypto, Bitcoin's role in international commerce and commodity transactions, Bitcoin's impact on oil trading in Nigeria, Bitcoin's role in the global reserve currency market, altcoins and the crypto market, investing in altcoins and financial innovation, oil market analysis and trading strategies, mean reversion trading and refining margins, factors affecting gasoline and distillates markets, the future of commodity markets and financialization, and gold, Bitcoin, and central bank policies.

    Forward Guidance

    Mon Jun 24 2024

    The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone

    Intercontinental ExchangeLIBORSOFRMarket CalculationsElectronification of Trade

    This episode covers the early career of David Goon at Intercontinental Exchange (I.C.E.), the transition from LIBOR to SOFR, the need for better controls and policies in market calculations, the electronification of trade and diversification into equities, blockchain technology for secondary trading of digital assets, trading system options and focus on non-traditional assets, private equity deals and importance of due diligence, comparison between IPO and SPAC disclosure processes, financial innovations and importance of following regulations, and hard work, innovation, and research in the financial industry. The episode concludes with final thoughts and podcast information.

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