Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

Forward Guidance

Fri Feb 23 2024

Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank

Commercial Real Estate BankingGerman BanksNet Interest MarginsBank FailuresMortgage REITs

The episode discusses concerns about commercial real estate banking markets in Germany, with a focus on two German banks experiencing extreme weakness. It explores the risks associated with high exposure to underperforming sectors like commercial real estate and the challenges in sustaining positive net interest margins. The episode also delves into the management of deposits and liquidity in Deutsche Fungri Bank, insights on bank failures and mortgage REITs, and a comparison of real estate loans between Japumpi Funk and another bank.

Forward Guidance

Thu Feb 22 2024

Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility

Economic IndicatorsFinancial ConditionsBalance Sheet SizesRate CutsYield Curve Inversion

This episode covers economic indicators, financial conditions, balance sheet sizes, rate cuts, yield curve inversion, inflation impact on asset allocation and insurance portfolios, challenges in the Eurozone economy, and forecasting for decision-making amidst market uncertainties.

Forward Guidance

Tue Feb 20 2024

Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts

Oil MarketOil Industry TrendsRenewable EnergyPower Demand

This episode provides an overview of the current state of the oil market, including insights on oil prices, production levels, and market stability. It also explores trends in the oil industry, such as consolidation and investor interest. Additionally, the episode discusses renewable energy and power demand challenges. The guest expert shares valuable insights on energy research and analysis. Overall, this episode offers a comprehensive look at the oil market and related topics.

Forward Guidance

Mon Feb 19 2024

Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery

Small Cap Value InvestingInvestment StrategiesFundamental AnalysisFree Cash FlowValue Investing

The episode covers various topics related to small cap value investing, including the challenges and opportunities in the market, the importance of qualitative analysis and understanding company fundamentals, generating free cash flow and return on investment, avoiding value traps, engaging with industry professionals, activist short selling strategies, long-short investing, and the role of biofuels and industrial policies in the investment landscape.

Forward Guidance

Thu Feb 15 2024

The Rising Risks In The “Private Credit” Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba

private creditfixed incomeinvestmenteconomic slowdownleverage loans

Private credit is the fastest growing part of fixed income markets. It involves lending to companies outside of public markets, with various investment styles. Private credit offers potential for double-digit returns but carries higher risk. Smaller, less diversified companies are often the focus. Economic slowdowns can impact private credit investments. Companies paying debt linked to floating rates face pressure in high interest rate environments. Refinancing debt helps avoid higher costs of funding. Private credit intersects with other parts of the fixed income universe. The rise of private credit affects leverage loans and high yield bonds. Default rates are higher in private credit and leverage loan spaces. The US economy's resiliency is driven by low inflation rates and aggressive rate cuts. The neutral rate and future rate cuts are uncertain. High yield issuance has fallen due to rising interest rates. There are investment opportunities in real estate and other areas. Fixed income investors should avoid herd mentality and focus on specific issuers and securities.

Forward Guidance

Tue Feb 13 2024

Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)

macro viewrecessioninterest rateseconomic growthfinancial conditions

This episode covers the balance of risks in the macro view, potential impacts of a second wave and overheating economy, indicators of economic activity and market performance, uncertainty in equities and interest rates, job market growth and the neutral rate, patterns of financial conditions and rate cuts, inflation, rate cuts, and two-sided risks, interest rates, demographics, and economic growth, demographics, inflation, and the global economy, inflation, interest rates, and wealth distribution, excess cash, interest rates, and trade opportunities, China's economic situation and housing market.

Forward Guidance

Mon Feb 12 2024

Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank

InvestingMarket EnvironmentTech StocksCredit ProblemsStructured Products

Joseph Wang and Martin Peltier discuss their approach to navigating the market environment with their clients. They take a goals-based approach, focusing on retirement and minimizing variability in returns. The rise of passive investing has influenced the market profile, with benchmarking driving investment into tech stocks. New York Community Bank has faced challenges with credit problems in their portfolio, particularly in multifamily rental apartments and Manhattan offices. The structured product market in Canada is worth $40 billion annually, with potential for growth.

Forward Guidance

Fri Feb 09 2024

China’s Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The World’s Biggest Bubble Ever

Chinaeconomyinvestment-led growthhousing marketPBOC

China's investment-led growth model is facing challenges due to malinvestment, credit accumulation, and geopolitical factors. The housing market is experiencing misallocation of resources, and the role of the PBOC in credit creation differs from other central banks. China's economic challenges include reliance on citizen liabilities, suppressed interest rates, and potential devaluation risks. Shifts in investment and infrastructure funding pose conflicting situations for local authorities. The tech sector faces challenges in achieving entrepreneurship and intellectual property rights. Monetary policy and currency management are difficult due to debt levels and external risks. US-China relations involve trade policy, tariffs, and doubts about cooperation on climate issues. Potential solutions include merging struggling real estate companies and recapitalizing state-owned banks. Future scenarios may involve devaluation, deflation, or currency break. Implications include declining property sales, wealth destruction, and limited global impact. The impact on global markets is minimal except for commodities. The risk of major devaluation in China's currency is currently low.

Forward Guidance

Tue Feb 06 2024

Citrini: The Next Phase of Stock Market's AI-Obsession

AI StocksInvesting StrategiesAdvancements in AI TechnologyRisks and Opportunities in TradingEconomic Indicators

This episode covers the rise of AI stocks, investing strategies, advancements in AI technology, risks and opportunities in trading, economic indicators and investment themes, investing in infrastructure, gaining knowledge and making informed decisions, risk management and trading strategies, thesis in trading and market insights, investment opportunities and risks in China, AI industry trends and investing strategies.

Forward Guidance

Mon Feb 05 2024

Dean Curnutt: Market Insurance Is Cheap, Stock-Bond Correlation Is Positive, And “Interesting” VIX Opportunities

stocksbondscorrelationforward guidancedebt

This episode discusses the changing correlation between stocks and bonds, the influence of forward guidance and debt on the bond market, volatility and Bitcoin as macro assets, stock-bond correlation and market volatility, volatility trading and selling options, option pricing and credit volatility, VIX options and market pricing, long volatility and option strategies, market pricing and option skew, VIX options and future pricing, market events and option insights, and long volatility and market opportunities.

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