MacroVoices #416 Mike Green: Inflation is Dead? Can You Buy Commodities Anyway?
MacroVoices podcast features Chief Investment Strategist Mike Green discussing inflation, commodities markets, rates, precious metals, and more. Market updates include S&P 500 futures down, US Dollar index down, crude oil up, gold up but uncertain, copper trading aggressively back towards highs. Key news to watch includes consumer confidence numbers, preliminary GDP, core PCE price index, and ISM manufacturing PMI numbers. Discussion on the possibility of Fed rate hikes instead of cuts due to potential inflation increase and market reactions. Commercial real estate sector may face challenges with rising interest rates and refinancing issues. Many owners of commercial real estate may need to pay down loans due to appraisals, impacting refinancing. The increase in Treasury issuance may be pressuring rates, affecting demand and supply dynamics. Changes in portfolio allocations and pension plans have influenced market demand and auction participation. Passive investing's impact on markets is being scrutinized, with concerns about distortions and impacts on active managers. Market awareness is growing regarding the distortions caused by passive investing, leading to discussions on trade-offs between market efficiency and accessibility of low-cost asset management services. Markets are being asked to do too much, leading to potential risks and distortions. Passive investing may have similarities to past financial scandals like Madoff's scheme. Commercial real estate risks may not be as contained as believed, with potential systemic implications. Americans are reluctant to shed low mortgage rates, which could lead to challenges in a recession.