Scribbler Logo

    You have 4 summaries left

    Tap it In Podcast

    2023 Open Championship Preview

    Mon Jul 17 2023
    GolfOpen ChampionshipPlayer PredictionsBetting OddsCourse ChallengesPlayer Analysis

    Description

    The episode covers the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liver Pool, including player performances, course details, challenges, and strategies. It also discusses player predictions, betting odds, insights, and analysis. The episode concludes with final betting picks and player analysis for the upcoming event.

    Insights

    Course Challenges and Strategies

    Accuracy off the tee and approach shots are crucial for success at the course. Missing fairways can lead to trouble due to penalty areas and thick fescues. Playing from the fairway and avoiding driver is recommended. The bunkers and steep surrounds make it challenging if players are not on the green.

    Player Predictions and Betting Odds

    Rory McIlroy and Scotty are the favorites for the tournament. Rory's performance on the putting green gives him an edge over Scotty. However, past instances where Rory was favored but did not succeed make the speaker less confident in his performance compared to Scotty.

    Betting Insights and Statistics

    There is an 80% chance that Rory will be in the top five and in one of the last two groups on Sunday. Scotty's odds are good at nine to one or ten to one. Some past Open winners have finished outside the top 25 in the previous year's Open. Random stats can be interesting, but their relevance during the tournament is uncertain.

    Player Analysis and Predictions

    Viktor Hovland is the pick to win the event based on his recent performances and major experience. Brooks Koepka's odds at 20 to 1 are seen as disrespectful, making him a good bet. Patrick Cantlay is under the radar this week and has performed well in big events. Dustin Johnson and Colin Morikawa are also strong contenders.

    Final Betting Picks and Player Analysis

    Adam Scott is favored to perform well based on his past performance and mindset. Henrik Stenson is playing well and could be a contender. Both speakers have chosen Hovland, DJ, Bryson, Scott, and Stenson as their top picks. It is suggested to bet on both players if you don't have a preference.

    Chapters

    1. The 151st Open Championship at Royal Liver Pool
    2. Course Details and Weather Conditions
    3. Course Challenges and Player Strategies
    4. Player Predictions and Betting Odds
    5. Betting Insights and Statistics
    6. Player Betting Picks and Predictions
    7. Betting Picks Continued and Player Analysis
    8. Player Analysis and Predictions
    9. Betting Picks and Final Thoughts
    10. Player Analysis and Betting Odds
    11. Player Analysis and Final Betting Picks
    Summary
    Transcript

    The 151st Open Championship at Royal Liver Pool

    00:01 - 07:16

    • Just tap it in, just tap it in, give it a little tapy. Tap, tap, tap, a roof.
    • Some players had close calls but didn't perform well.
    • Rory McIlroy's performance was impressive on the back nine.
    • Rory McIlroy canceled his press conference for the week.
    • The ranking of favorite majors varies between individuals.

    Course Details and Weather Conditions

    06:47 - 13:41

    • I'm looking forward to Pinehurst and Oakmont, our favorite major championship courses.
    • The upcoming venue may play relatively easy compared to St. George.
    • We expect wind at this course due to its coastal location.
    • The winning score is predicted to be around 16-17 under par, depending on the wind.
    • There was some controversy surrounding Xander Schauffele's behavior during the tournament.
    • Despite his outbursts, some find it entertaining and believe golf needs players like him.
    • This is the 13th time the tournament has been held at Hoylake, with Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods being previous winners.
    • The course measures 7383 yards and has changed from a par-72 to a par-71 since 2014.
    • There have been changes in hole layouts since 2014, including a new hole and alterations to the 10th hole.
    • A total of 156 players are participating in the tournament, with only the top 70 (including ties) making it to the weekend.
    • Important stats for success include approach shots and accuracy off the tee.

    Course Challenges and Player Strategies

    13:13 - 20:24

    • The top 70 in ties will be making it to the weekend, not 65.
    • Off the tee is important, as missing fairways can lead to trouble.
    • There are penalty areas and thick fescues on the course.
    • Play from the fairway and avoid using driver.
    • 14 out of 18 holes are non par threes, with six of them having internal out of bounds.
    • Accuracy is crucial this year compared to last year when players could get away with riskier shots.
    • The bunkers and steep surrounds make it challenging if you're not on the green.
    • The course is not firm yet but may change due to rain, affecting club selection and wind direction.
    • The 17th hole is a tough par three with a small green and difficult bunkers.
    • The 18th hole has out of bounds on the right side, making it a challenging closing hole.
    • A designated drop spot for TIO relief will make it tougher for players who hit into bad spots.
    • Some holes have been changed from previous years, including extending the 18th hole's distance.
    • The weather may bring rain but won't significantly impact play in terms of wave stacks or advantages for certain tee times.

    Player Predictions and Betting Odds

    19:54 - 27:23

    • The speaker hopes that a certain person plays well in an upcoming golf tournament.
    • The speaker refrains from asking the person for information about the course because they want to leave them alone during the event.
    • There are some players with low DK prices who could perform well, such as Nakajima and Alex Fitzpatrick.
    • Many players may be motivated to perform well in order to secure a spot in the Ryder Cup.
    • The favorites for the tournament are Rory and Scotty, and it is difficult to imagine a scenario where both of them do not perform well.
    • Scotty has consistently finished within the top 20 in his recent starts, making him a safe bet.
    • Rory's stats were similar to Scotty's last week, but he performed better on the putting green.
    • The speaker mentions past instances where Rory was favored to win but did not succeed, so they are less confident in his performance compared to Scotty.

    Betting Insights and Statistics

    26:56 - 34:42

    • There is an 80% chance that Rory will be in the top five and in one of the last two groups on Sunday.
    • There is a 20% chance that Rory misses the cut.
    • Scotty's odds are good at nine to one or ten to one.
    • Both Rory and Scotty are expected to be popular picks on DraftKings.
    • The ownership for both players may be high, but it seems to be decreasing slightly.
    • It's difficult to decide between Rory and Scotty due to their popularity.
    • Rory's high price may help decrease his ownership.
    • There is uncertainty about whether you can fade both Rory and Scotty as picks on DraftKings.
    • Some past Open winners have finished outside the top 25 in the previous year's Open.
    • It's a wild stat that has occurred for thirteen straight years, but it's hard to find a reason behind it.
    • Another stat shows that every Open Champion since 2013 had certain qualifications, with only Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler meeting them this year.
    • Random stats can be interesting, but their relevance during the tournament is uncertain.
    • John Ram is considered a forgotten man, but winning both the Masters and the Open in the same year is challenging.
    • Cam Smith won't likely perform well at this course despite being in great form recently.

    Player Betting Picks and Predictions

    34:17 - 41:32

    • I absolutely love watching him play golf
    • He's in great form and playing his best of the season
    • Driver is a concern, would prefer if it was firm
    • Cam Smith and Jon Rahm are expected to be low-owned
    • Betting on Viktor Hovland with odds between 30 and 33 to 1
    • Hovland has major experience and performed well in previous tournaments
    • He is the pick to win this event
    • Hovland finished fourth, seventh, second, and nineteenth in his last four majors
    • He won the Memorial Tournament which had top players competing
    • He played well at the Scottish Open as preparation for The Open Championship
    • Brooks Koepka's odds at 20 to 1 are seen as disrespectful
    • Will bet on Koepka due to lack of strong options after Hovland

    Betting Picks Continued and Player Analysis

    41:02 - 48:22

    • Brooks Koepka is being bet at 20 to one and the speaker thinks it's a great number
    • Koepka has a good track record in Open Championships with four top 10 finishes in his last seven
    • The speaker doesn't think Koepka will win, but prefers to bet on Patrick Cantlay instead
    • Cantlay has performed well in big events and has good stats off the tee
    • The speaker believes Cantlay is under the radar this week
    • Ricky Fowler is also mentioned as a potential bet at odds of 22 to one

    Player Analysis and Predictions

    47:52 - 55:17

    • Rory McIlroy is expected to contend in the US Open and has a strong record on par fives.
    • Tommy Fleetwood is a good bet for a top-five finish, but unlikely to win.
    • Jordan Spieth's recent form and potential injury make him an unfavorable bet.
    • Dustin Johnson has a good track record in the Open Championship and is worth considering at 35 to one odds.
    • Colin Morikawa's game suits the course well, making him a strong contender.
    • The podcast hosts believe DJ and Rory can be beaten by other players in the final group.

    Betting Picks and Final Thoughts

    54:49 - 1:01:55

    • I bet the 35 again today. Did you?
    • Colin Moore, Kyle Perfect for this course.
    • Concerns about Colin Markower winning another Open Championship.
    • Bryson DeChambeau playing well and a good fit for the course.
    • Favorable odds on Max Homa at 65 to one.
    • Doubts about Justin Rose's chances of winning.
    • Adam Scott as a favorite pick due to his past performance and mindset.

    Player Analysis and Betting Odds

    1:01:27 - 1:09:28

    • Adam Scott is favored to perform well in the upcoming event.
    • Scott has a strong record at the Open Championship.
    • Henrik Stenson is playing well and could be a contender.
    • Stenson's motivation may be fueled by his exclusion from the Ryder Cup team.
    • Stenson's recent performance indicates he is hitting fairways and greens consistently.
    • Despite his age, Stenson could still have a good chance at success.
    • There are favorable odds for betting on Stenson to finish in the top 20 or top 5.

    Player Analysis and Final Betting Picks

    1:09:00 - 1:11:11

    • Henrik Stenson is a strong contender in the upcoming event.
    • The Swedish golfers are performing well recently, including Ludwig and Vin Norman.
    • Stenson should be treated with the respect he deserves as a legend of the sport.
    • If Stenson wins, the speaker plans to buy expensive majestic spoilers.
    • The speaker will provide betting picks on Twitter for the upcoming event.
    • Both speakers have chosen Hovland, DJ, Bryson, Scott, and Stenson as their top picks.
    • It is suggested to bet on both players if you don't have a preference.
    • This is the last major of the year.
    1