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    The Jordan Harbinger Show

    855: Russia's Wagner Group and Why Coups Fail | Out of the Loop

    Tue Jul 04 2023
    Wagner GroupPrivate Military ForceCoup AttemptDictatorship StrategiesGeopolitical Implications

    Description

    This episode explores the emergence, structure, recruitment, operations, and implications of Wagner Group, a private military force led by oligarch leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The failed coup attempt by Wagner Group in Russia reveals the challenges faced by dictators in maintaining power and the geopolitical implications of such events. The episode also discusses strategies used by dictators to protect themselves from coups and the potential future scenarios in global geopolitics.

    Insights

    Information Flows in Dictatorships

    Information flows in dictatorships differ from those in democracies, making it difficult for dictators like Putin to know the true strength of their adversaries or who supports them.

    Recruitment and Composition of Wagner Group

    Wagner Group recruits soldiers from prisons and has an overlap with white nationalism or neo-Nazi ideology. Many mercenaries come from backgrounds such as soccer hooliganism, gun enthusiasts, martial arts practitioners, and MMA fans.

    Failed Coup Attempt and Aftermath

    The failed coup attempt by Wagner Group aimed to convince people to abandon Putin's elite and join their side. The lack of bandwagon effect and defections revealed the challenges faced by coup plotters in dictatorships.

    Implications and Future of Wagner Group

    Replacing Wagner personnel would take time and expertise, raising questions about how Prigoshan will source and finance operations without Russian military support. The future organizational direction of Wagner is uncertain after their move to Belarus.

    Strategies for Maintaining Dictatorship Power

    Dictators use strategies like appointing popular figures as ambassadors and limiting military power to avoid being overthrown. There is a trade-off between cracking down on coup plotters and creating more opposition or appearing weak and inviting opportunistic coup plotters.

    Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

    Geopolitical changes, such as countries hoarding consumption and producing more locally, may lead to conflicts similar to those in the past. China is heavily dependent on globalization, making it vulnerable to changes. The European Union may disintegrate due to energy dependency and manufacturing challenges.

    Chapters

    1. Information Flows in Dictatorships vs Democracies
    2. The Emergence and Structure of Wagner Group
    3. Recruitment and Composition of Wagner Group
    4. Operations and Expansion of Wagner Group
    5. Failed Coup Attempt and Aftermath
    6. Implications and Future of Wagner Group
    7. Dictatorship Strategies and Geopolitical Implications
    8. Strategies for Maintaining Dictatorship Power
    9. Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios
    Summary
    Transcript

    Information Flows in Dictatorships vs Democracies

    00:00 - 07:15

    • Information flows don't operate the same way in dictatorships as they do in democracies.
    • Putin doesn't know the strength of his adversaries or who supports him because everyone lies to him.

    The Emergence and Structure of Wagner Group

    06:46 - 14:09

    • There was an attempted pseudo coup in Russia recently.
    • The events started as an appeal to authority but quickly turned into a mutiny or rebellion.
    • Wagner is a private military force led by oligarch leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.
    • Wagner is not a legal entity, but rather a catch-all term for affiliated companies.
    • Prigozhin, who was once a caterer, became the leader of Wagner through leveraging connections and influence.
    • He worked his way up from being a hot dog vendor to owning a restaurant that impressed Vladimir Putin.
    • Vladimir Putin's chef worked his way up to owning a restaurant and leveraged his connection with Putin to secure lucrative contracts for providing food to the Russian military and schools.
    • The chef was paid 80 billion rubles for catering, which is more believable than dollars.

    Recruitment and Composition of Wagner Group

    13:44 - 20:37

    • Wagner Group, a network of mercenary companies, emerged in Eastern Ukraine in 2014 during the outbreak of war.
    • Dimitri Utkin, a neo-Nazi and former soldier, played a significant role in the formation of the Wagner Group.
    • There is an overlap between mercenaries and white nationalism or neo-Nazi ideology.
    • Many mercenaries come from backgrounds such as soccer hooliganism, gun enthusiasts, martial arts practitioners, and MMA fans.
    • Mercenaries are willing to be violent for money without needing their ideologies to align with their actions.
    • Wagner Group recruited soldiers from prisons to replenish their numbers during battles in Ukraine.
    • Initially sidelined by other private military companies affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, Wagner Group became involved in the war when the Russian military faced setbacks and needed manpower.
    • Wagner Group brought in experienced fighters who had previously fought in Eastern Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and Africa.
    • Russian government recruited experienced fighters from penal colonies to join the war in Ukraine
    • The offer to prisoners was to fight for six months and have a chance at survival
    • About 20% of prisoners decided to sign up for the offer
    • Prisoners had respect for Prigoshan, the leader of the recruitment effort
    • Wagner, a private military company, is profit-driven but represents the interests of the Russian state

    Operations and Expansion of Wagner Group

    20:09 - 26:55

    • Wagner is a mixture of Blackwater and Executive Outcomes, allowing them to embed within Russia's national security infrastructure and offer their services to other governments without facing opposition.
    • Wagner operates in Ukraine, Belarus, Syria, and Africa.
    • In Syria, Wagner initially worked as contractors for the Russian military but later struck a deal with the Syrian government to protect oil fields in exchange for a percentage of the profits.
    • In early 2018, a contingent of Wagner personnel attacked a base that also had American special forces present. The US responded with excessive firepower, resulting in significant casualties for Wagner.
    • The reason behind the US receiving the green light to attack Wagner remains unclear.
    • Wagner is funded through state budgets and profits from securing mines in Africa.
    • Wagner has expanded its operations by taking control of mines in Africa through violent means.
    • Wagner first arrived in the Central African Republic to provide training to the Central African Armed Forces.
    • UN peacekeepers, Rwanda, and Wagner find themselves on the same side in the new version of PMCs (private military contractors).
    • Despite their differences, Wagner and UN peacekeepers coexist in close proximity in Central African Republic.

    Failed Coup Attempt and Aftermath

    26:35 - 33:06

    • The coup plot in Russia was not about direct fighting, but rather a coordination game to convince people to join the winning team.
    • The coup plot aimed to make it seem inevitable for people to abandon Putin's elite and Wagner mercenary force.
    • The coup plot failed because it fizzled quickly, and there was no bandwagon effect of defections from the Russian military or Wagner group.
    • Progosion likely had delusion, ambition, and misreading of the situation when attempting the coup.
    • Putin may have used leverage such as threats to family or personal safety to deter Progosion from seizing power.
    • Successful coups are usually lightning strikes that seize control quickly, which did not happen in this case.
    • The lack of information flow in dictatorships makes it difficult for Putin to know who truly supports him and for the Wagner group to understand the layout.
    • The failed coup has damaged Putin's regime by revealing that someone challenged him and creating uncertainty among his elites.
    • Putin is likely to respond with purges and shows of strength to reassert dominance after this moment of vulnerability.
    • Putin's deliberate visibility on TV after the coup attempt sends a message of strength and defiance.
    • Cooproofing is a long-term strategy to create structures that protect a dictator during a coup.
    • During a coup, being highly visible is crucial for defending the regime.

    Implications and Future of Wagner Group

    32:50 - 39:43

    • Replacing Wagner personnel would take time and expertise.
    • Question remains on how Prigoshan will source and finance operations without Russian military support.
    • Wagner played a significant role as a fighting force in Ukraine, particularly in Bachmut
    • The Russian army's only recent victory in Ukraine was largely due to Wagner.
    • Increased supply lines are a problem for smaller countries like Ukraine.
    • Ukraine is benefiting from Russia's logistical challenges.
    • The psychological damage of the situation is a major consequence for the Russian military.
    • Being outflanked by more nationalistic forces would be detrimental to the regime in power.
    • Martyring Wagner would validate his argument against corrupt top brass.
    • There was no significant polarization or dehumanization of the enemy in this conflict.
    • The lack of resistance from armed protesters during the storming of Washington DC can be compared to the situation with Wagner soldiers in Russia.
    • Dispelling conspiracy theories, it doesn't make sense for this coup to be theater for moving Wagner to Belarus and attacking there.
    • The conspiracy theory that the coup was just theater and a cover to move Wagner to Belarus is unlikely
    • Moving Wagner to Belarus could have been done in many other ways
    • The idea of Putin playing 5D chess while others play checkers is unlikely
    • People in positions of power are often just normal people, which can be scarier than conspiracy theories
    • There are concerns about the competence of those involved in the government
    • The future organizational direction of Wagner is uncertain after their move to Belarus
    • Progosian may seek a new master, possibly China, or try to paint himself as acceptable to the West
    • Progosian may mentally prepare himself as a nationalistic martyr for Russia
    • It's unclear what will happen next for Progosian and Wagner

    Dictatorship Strategies and Geopolitical Implications

    57:38 - 1:03:56

    • Flykit is a solution for jet lag that has been proven to work based on research with Navy Seals.
    • Flykit provides a schedule in their app that tells you when to eat, what to have, and when to sleep.
    • Using Flykit has helped the speaker avoid jet lag on every international trip with a big time zone difference.
    • Coups are difficult to measure because sometimes dictators invent them as a pretext to purge the military.
    • Coup plotters usually have some sort of pretext for their actions, but the real reasons are often power or money.
    • Dictators take precautions to insulate themselves from the risk of a coup because it is the most likely way they will be taken out of power.
    • In coups carried out by factions within the military, perception plays a crucial role in determining success rather than force strength.
    • Wagner Group's attempted coup in Russia was not about fighting but about convincing people they would win and joining their side.

    Strategies for Maintaining Dictatorship Power

    1:09:37 - 1:15:34

    • Timing and speed play a significant role in the outcome of coups.
    • Dictators are paranoid about travel and have contingency plans in place for potential coups.
    • Putin has created infighting among factions and uses fear to maintain control.
    • Oligarchs falling out windows is an example of the culture of fear under Putin's rule.
    • The Wagner group was allowed to amass power due to the urgent situation in Ukraine.
    • Dictators use strategies like appointing popular figures as ambassadors to prevent coups.
    • There is a tradeoff between coup risk and civil war risk in dictatorships.
    • Sideline people like the Wagner group increases the risk of civil war
    • Dictators have to limit military power to avoid being overthrown
    • Trade-offs exist in dictatorial regimes, such as downgrading the army and relying on a loyalist police force
    • Rebuilding the military from scratch can be necessary after a dictatorship collapses
    • Rotating generals can be a strategy to maintain control in some countries
    • Dictators constantly live in fear and make short-term decisions that may lead to catastrophic outcomes
    • Putin's recent slap across the face makes it difficult for him to appear strong and hide cracks in his regime
    • There is a trade-off between cracking down on coup plotters and creating more opposition or appearing weak and inviting opportunistic coup plotters
    • Modest purges that send a clear message without alienating larger sections of the elite class tend to work best for maintaining power
    • Putin may be trying to toe the line by treating Wagner officers poorly but not resorting to severe measures
    • Jenny Pragosian is unlikely to die an old man and will likely watch his back for the rest of his life

    Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

    1:20:34 - 1:25:30

    • Geopolitics analyst Peter Zion predicts that the US will not intervene in future incidents, leading to potential conflicts similar to those in the 1910s and 1930s.
    • Countries are increasingly hoarding their consumption and producing more locally, which may result in significant drops in agricultural output and global food supply problems.
    • China is heavily dependent on globalization and the demographic moment that has passed, making it the biggest loser as globalization changes.
    • The European Union is likely to disintegrate within the next decade due to a lack of Russian energy and German manufacturing model.
    • The pace of disintegration is difficult to comprehend, signaling a rough ride ahead.
    • The Jordan Harbinger Show episode with Peter Zion explores how globalization and our way of life will dramatically change in the coming decade.
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