The Jordan Harbinger Show
866: Astrology | Skeptical Sunday
Sun Jul 23 2023AstrologyPseudoscienceConfirmation BiasScientific ValidityHoroscopes
Description
The episode discusses astrology and its lack of scientific validity. It explores the origins of astrology, the scientific inconsistencies it presents, and the pseudoscience behind it. The episode also delves into the flaws in horoscopes and confirmation bias, as well as the negative consequences of believing in astrology. It concludes with personal insights from an astronaut and the importance of rationality in society.
Insights
Astrology lacks scientific validity
Astrology is considered pseudoscience and does not stand up to scientific scrutiny. No astrophysicists subscribe to astrology or study it.
Scientific inconsistencies of astrology
Astrology's claims are inconsistent with our current scientific knowledge. The positions of stars and planets do not have a measurable influence on daily events or personality traits.
Flaws in horoscopes and confirmation bias
Horoscopes are deliberately vague and can create self-fulfilling prophecies. People tend to selectively remember when their horoscope aligns with their day, ignoring the majority of times it doesn't.
Negative consequences of believing in astrology
Believing in astrology promotes a suspension of basic logic and can have negative consequences for society. It hinders societal progress by prioritizing delusions over empirical science.
Importance of rationality in society
Striving for a more rational society involves rejecting pseudosciences like astrology. Learning about the cosmos through true scientific inquiry is crucial for societal progress.
Chapters
- Introduction to Astrology
- Scientific Inconsistencies of Astrology
- Pseudoscience and Lack of Scientific Validity
- Testing and Debunking Astrology
- Inconsistencies and Lack of Evidence
- Flaws in Horoscopes and Confirmation Bias
- Negative Consequences and Rational Society
- Personal Insights from an Astronaut
Summary
Transcript
Introduction to Astrology
00:00 - 07:01
- Astrology is the belief that the positions of planets and stars in the night sky influence events on Earth
- There are 12 zodiac constellations in Western astrology, such as Leo and Gemini
- Astrology claims to have a reliable connection between celestial positions and events on Earth
- To validate astrology scientifically, we need to understand the mechanism of action and examine if predictions hold true statistically
- Without a coherent explanation, believing in astrology is akin to believing in magic
Scientific Inconsistencies of Astrology
06:35 - 13:17
- Astrology was developed thousands of years ago when we had no scientific knowledge.
- Science and sophisticated instruments should demand more than magic as an explanation.
- Stars are not magnets and their magnetic force does not have an effect on us.
- Electromagnetism is not the force that has the greatest influence in the cosmos; gravity is.
- Calculations using Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation show that distant stars have no measurable gravitational influence on us.
- The sun and the moon are the only objects with significant gravitational influence on Earth.
- Astrology's claim of influencing daily events or personality traits is ridiculous given our current scientific knowledge.
- The stars depicted in astrological charts are often millions of light years apart and unrelated in any meaningful way.
- Believers may argue that astrology is beyond our comprehension, but this is not a satisfactory scientific answer.
- Astrophysicists do not subscribe to astrology because it lacks scientific validity.
Pseudoscience and Lack of Scientific Validity
12:50 - 19:02
- Astrology is devoid of any scientific validity and is considered pseudoscience.
- No astrophysicists subscribe to astrology or study it.
- Astrology originated before the existence of science and does not stand up to scientific scrutiny.
- Believing in astrology contradicts our modern understanding of the universe and our place in it.
- The constellations in astrology are arbitrary and do not have any special significance.
- Constellations were designed by humans to reflect mythological figures and recurring aspects of their environment, not as indicators for astrology.
Testing and Debunking Astrology
18:36 - 24:52
- Constellations were designed by humans to reflect mythological figures and recurring aspects of their environment.
- Astrology is a set of mnemonic devices and storytelling for ancient generations.
- Even from an experiential perspective, astrology falls apart when tested objectively.
- To test astrology, one can assume it is true and compare its predictions to observations.
- Professional astrologers have never performed better than chance at matching natal charts to personalities.
- Astrology should be as reliable as identifying chemicals or plant species, but it fails in practice.
- No matter who tries to test astrology, believers often dismiss failures as the fault of the tester rather than questioning astrology itself.
- Large sample sets of people born at the same time show no trends or similarities based on their astrological signs.
Inconsistencies and Lack of Evidence
24:33 - 30:45
- Astrology fails to show any consistent trends for traits or circumstances.
- Even people born around the same time have differences due to factors like birth location and environmental conditions.
- Fraternal twins, who are born at the same time but not genetically identical, often have contrasting personalities and life experiences.
- This disproves astrology's claim that having the same natal chart predicts similarity.
- Personal experiences and horoscope readings cannot be used as evidence for astrology's validity.
- Convincing someone who believes in astrology based on personal experience is challenging.
Flaws in Horoscopes and Confirmation Bias
30:22 - 36:16
- Astrology is often believed to be true even though it's objectively not
- Horoscopes are deliberately vague and predominantly flattering
- People tend to identify with positive traits mentioned in horoscopes, even if they don't objectively possess those traits
- The Barnum Effect is a logical fallacy where people see specific details in vague statements and fill in the gaps with personal examples
- Horoscopes can create self-fulfilling prophecies by influencing behavior based on suggestions
- Horoscopes from different sources often contradict each other, indicating their lack of reliability
- Astrology makes vague predictions that are not rigorously falsifiable or scientifically accurate
- Confirmation bias plays a role as people selectively remember the few times a horoscope aligns with their day while ignoring the majority of times it doesn't
Negative Consequences and Rational Society
35:50 - 42:03
- Confirmation bias can lead people to ignore evidence that contradicts their beliefs and focus only on confirming evidence.
- Believing in astrology is an example of confirmation bias, where people selectively remember the times when their horoscope seemed accurate and ignore the times it was not.
- While astrology may not be as harmful as other pseudosciences like anti-vaccine propaganda, it still promotes a suspension of basic logic and is incompatible with reality.
- Engaging in pseudoscience can have negative consequences for society, as seen when Ronald Reagan's administration relied on an astrologer for decision-making.
- Mysticism and pseudoscience hinder societal progress by prioritizing delusions over empirical science, which is crucial for addressing challenges in the 21st century.
- Astrology is illusory and completely false, but the sense of purpose and empowerment it provides can also be derived from true scientific inquiry about the cosmos.
- Instead of making up myths about the stars, we should learn about them through science and strive to explore space physically.
- The goal of seeing everyone stop believing in astrology is a reasonable one that would contribute to a more rational society.
Personal Insights from an Astronaut
41:46 - 44:57
- The speaker wishes to see everyone stop believing in astrology.
- Retired astronaut Chris Hadfield shares his experience of becoming an astronaut.
- Hadfield emphasizes the importance of preparation for major events in life.
- Astronauts visualize failure and practice dealing with it to perform better.
- Hadfield encourages staying focused on dreams from a young age.