Pod Save America

Biden Shifts Into Thigh Gear

Tue Jul 11 2023

2024 ElectionPrimary ScheduleTrump's StrengthCampaign StrategiesAnti-Trump Ad CampaignDeSantis vs. TrumpChris Christie's CriticismBiden's StrategyAge and Thirst Traps in PoliticsSarah McBride's CampaignBuilding Coalitions and Representation

Description

The episode covers various topics related to the 2024 election, including the primary schedules in Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump's strength and weaknesses, campaign strategies and messaging, anti-Trump ad campaigns and fundraising efforts, the competition between Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie, Biden's strategy and messaging, the role of age and thirst traps in politics, insights into Biden's energy and leadership style, Sarah McBride's campaign focus, and the importance of building coalitions and representation. The episode also touches on Biden's support for LGBTQ rights and personal stories involving Joe Biden.

Insights

Trump remains strong but may have weaknesses

Despite dominating in national and state polls, Trump's opponents might have more luck in New Hampshire due to its more moderate and educated voters. However, Trump's coalition has shifted and he remains strong across different categories.

DeSantis faces challenges in competing with Trump

Despite raising significant funds, Ron DeSantis still lags behind Trump in endorsements and polling. Unless there is a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the race, it's unlikely that DeSantis will be able to compete with Trump in a long primary race.

Christie's criticism of Trump may not lead to support for himself

Chris Christie's criticism of Trump's Iowa event may not necessarily lead people to support him, but it could make them look for an alternative to Trump. Christie faces challenges in gaining traction among Republican voters who still overwhelmingly support Trump.

Biden's strategy focuses on reaching out to Republican districts

Joe Biden's strategy involves doing events in districts held by Republicans who voted against his agenda. This helps generate media coverage and highlight opposition while emphasizing Biden's message of helping people and creating jobs in places that did not vote for him.

Age and thirst traps become new factors in politics

Thirst traps, physical fitness, and age have become new factors in politics. While some candidates gain attention for their physical fitness, it may not be a priority for all voters. The Biden campaign embraces the idea that with age comes wisdom as they address concerns about his age.

Biden's leadership style emphasizes kindness and compassion

Some of Biden's best moments have been when he showed kindness, compassion, and grace. While energetic speeches are good, constant yelling and outrage may not be appealing to most voters.

Building coalitions and representation are important for governance

The importance of building coalitions with diversity of thought is highlighted. Representation changes the conversation, priorities, and policy. It is necessary to have connectivity and dialogue with those who disagree on social issues.

Summary

Transcript

2024 Election Schedule

00:20 - 06:29

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Monday, January 15th.
The New Hampshire primary will likely take place on January 23rd, eight days after the Iowa caucuses.

Trump's Strength and Weakness

06:21 - 13:17

Trump is dominating nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire.
There may be some weakness based on campaigning.
Harry Anton argues that Trump's opponents might have more luck in New Hampshire due to its more moderate and educated voters.
However, Trump's coalition has shifted and he remains strong across different categories.
Iowa hasn't been good at picking Republican nominees since 1980, while New Hampshire has a better track record.
New Hampshire is more moderate and college-educated compared to Iowa.
Chris Christie is doing better among moderate and college-educated voters in New Hampshire, but still at a low percentage.
In the Senate race of 2022, New Hampshire Republican voters nominated Don Boldick over Chuck Morse despite Boldick's controversial views.
The outcome of the race will depend on larger shifts within the Republican electorate rather than choosing between Iowa and New Hampshire.

Campaign Strategies and Messaging

13:03 - 19:30

Republican electorate in New Hampshire is more conservative in a midterm.
There is a Trumpy Northeast Republican base that is all in on election-denying.
Trump is stronger today than he was in 2016.
Weaknesses need to overcome the advantages Trump already has.
Stopping Trump in Iowa could sway some New Hampshire voters.
Candidates need to focus on their own strategy and tactics.
None of the campaigns have figured out a compelling story for Iowa or New Hampshire.
A mail piece sent to Iowans thanks Trump for standing up for LGBTQ rights, but seems ineffective and hamfisted.
Another group called Win It Back launches an anti-Trump ad campaign in Iowa and South Carolina.

Anti-Trump Ad Campaign and Fundraising

19:02 - 25:58

A group called Win It Back, with ties to club for growth, is launching a multi-million dollar ad campaign in Iowa and South Carolina with an anti-Trump message.
The TV ad features a Republican voter expressing disappointment in the Democrats and their hot mess, but also expressing concerns about Trump's constant drama and distractions.
The ad aims to make an argument against Trump to people who love him, using carefully chosen words to find a normal vernacular for discussing why Trump is weak.
While the ad has a good message, it underscores the bigger problem of needing an appealing alternative to Trump that can put together a team and focus on issues instead of drama.
Softening Republican voters towards this argument may be difficult given their love for Trump, but the ad provides a permission structure for considering other candidates.
Ron DeSantis' campaign has raised $20 million in his first six weeks as a candidate, while his super PAC has raised $130 million since March. However, Trump still leads in fundraising and endorsements.
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, who is popular among Republicans, is viewed by Trump's team as neutral in name only when it comes to supporting DeSantis.

DeSantis vs. Trump

25:31 - 32:14

Despite raising $15 million more than Ron DeSantis, Trump has more endorsements and is leading in every state and national poll.
DeSantis claims that the media doesn't want him to be the nominee because they know he can beat Biden and deliver on his promises.
DeSantis is stuck in a doom loop where every question is about why he can't effectively make a case against Trump.
DeSantis's name recognition and favorability among Republican voters are high, but his national favorability rating is bad.
The support of Kim Reynolds, the governor of Iowa, could potentially influence DeSantis's campaign like Terry Branstad did in 2016.
Money ensures that DeSantis can stay in the race for as long as he wants, even if it means embarrassing himself.
Florida's primary date is either on Super Tuesday or after, which means DeSantis needs to perform well before then to have a chance.
Unless something changes dramatically, it's unlikely that DeSantis will be able to compete with Trump in a long primary race.
Having a large war chest won't matter if there isn't a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the race.

Chris Christie's Criticism

31:56 - 38:33

Chris Christie criticizes Trump's Iowa event, accusing him of lying about the farm deal with China and being focused on his ego rather than the American people.
Christie's message is an argument against Trump, not necessarily for himself.
It remains unclear if Christie's criticism will lead people to support him or simply look for an alternative to Trump.
Christie's unfavorable ratings among Republican voters are high, except in New Hampshire where he has some support due to his presence there in 2016.
The majority of Republican voters still love Trump and believe he was the greatest president who won the last election, making it challenging for other candidates to gain traction.
In a national NBC poll, Christie's favorability among Republican voters is low at 13% favorable and 43% unfavorable.
To win over voters, Christie needs to convince them that he is more charismatic, interesting, popular, and moderate than Ron DeSantis.
In Chris Christie's best-case scenario, DeSantis' campaign collapses in Iowa and Trump wins while other candidates run out of money. Then in New Hampshire, Christie competes one-on-one with Trump and manages to win or come close.

DeSantis vs. Christie

38:04 - 44:23

Ron DeSantis may struggle in the Republican primary if he positions himself as anti-Trump.
Chris Christie could potentially win or perform well in New Hampshire, but South Carolina may not be favorable for him.
DeSantis should focus on highlighting his accomplishments and contrasting them with Trump's self-centeredness.
DeSantis is trying to outflank Trump on policy, but it may not resonate with Republican voters.
Casey DeSantis' messaging is controversial and divisive, which may harm Ron DeSantis' campaign.

Biden's Strategy and Messaging

43:54 - 50:40

Joe Biden visited a clean energy manufacturing company in South Carolina and announced upcoming visits to Republican districts.
Biden plans to visit another Republican's district for a groundbreaking event.
The strategy of doing events in districts held by Republicans who voted against his agenda helps generate media coverage and highlight opposition.
Voters may not care about charges of hypocrisy, but they can appreciate Biden's message of helping people and creating jobs in places that did not vote for him.
Biden's approach contrasts with politicians like Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, who focus on Red America only.
Biden's age is a political challenge, but he addressed it by emphasizing his wisdom and desire to finish the job in the next six years.
Pictures of Biden at the beach sparked social media jokes about his appearance and energy level.
There is debate about whether an 80-year-old president with frat guy energy is the kind of leader needed right now.
Thirst traps have become a new wedge issue in the presidential contest.

Thirst Traps and Age

50:21 - 56:58

Thirst traps are being considered a new wedge issue in politics.
Some Republican candidates have gained attention for their physical fitness, but it may not be a priority for all voters.
A Republican mayor, Francis Suarez, claimed a sixth-place finish in a 5K race, but it was actually in his age group and not overall.
There is a right-wing discourse that promotes the idea of masculinity through strength and avoiding vegetables.
Elon Musk engaged in a Twitter feud with Mark Zuckerberg and challenged him to a literal dick measuring contest.
The Biden campaign is embracing the idea that with age comes wisdom as they address concerns about his age.
Biden's team is aware of his weakness as an older candidate and is trying to navigate it through humor and acknowledging his experience.
An Axios story suggests that Biden has a quick temper with his staff during meetings, leading some aides to believe he should display it publicly to counter perceptions of disengagement.

Biden's Energy and Leadership

56:31 - 1:03:28

Anecdotes in the story were old and not indicative of a morning fit of peak or temperate behavior.
There are ways to show energy without losing one's temper.
Trying to outmasculent the fake masculinity of Republican candidates is not effective.
Biden's passion about injustice and energetic speeches are good, but constant yelling and outrage is not appealing to most voters.
Joking about Marjorie Taylor Green's district may be more effective than yelling at her.
Some of Biden's best moments have been when he showed kindness, compassion, and grace.

Sarah McBride's Campaign

1:03:03 - 1:10:19

Sarah McBride, a Delaware congressional candidate, discusses her campaign focused on making progress on various issues rather than just being known as the first transgender member of Congress.
She believes in working with colleagues from different parties if they can find common ground on specific issues.

Building Coalitions and Representation

1:09:50 - 1:11:51

The speaker has been able to work with moderate members of the Democratic Party and conservative Republicans, passing bills with bipartisan majorities.
There are issues outside of the headlines where Democrats and Republicans can work together.
The speaker wants to make it uncomfortable for those pushing cruel policies by having them look her in the eye and answer her questions.
Representation is important because it changes the conversation, priorities, and policy.
While basic human rights should never be compromised, there should be some level of connectivity and dialogue with those who disagree on social issues.
Building coalitions with diversity of thought is necessary for governance.
The speaker cannot take credit for changing Joe Biden's mind on trans issues but believes his big heart and carrying on his son's legacy contribute to his support for LGBTQ rights.
The speaker met Joe Biden when she was 11 years old at a pizza shop in Delaware, and he signed a schedule that became her prized possession.
In January 2013, after coming out as trans, the Vice President pulled the speaker in at the Naval Observatory.