How BTC's Rally Could Kickstart Crypto's Flywheel | Bell Curve

Fri Jun 23 2023

BlackRock ETF Filing

BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, announced that they were filing for an ETF.
Other ETF issuers like Bitwise, Invesco, and Wisdom Tree have also filed.
Prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have responded positively to this news.
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF could lead to ETH being considered next.
Over six million people tweeted about Bitcoin ETF last week, which could help solve the cold start problem and get people talking about it more.
The positive sentiment from large asset managers de-risks cryptocurrencies from a regulatory, reputational, and business perspective.

Massive asset managers are supporting the GG put, which may have been de-risked from a regulatory and reputational perspective.
Positive sentiment is expected in March 2024 with the happening of Bitcoin and potential approval of ETFs.
The market structure bill or draft bill will determine the future of crypto regulation.
A vote on July 19 out of committee for a regulatory bill that's pro-crypto is a huge step forward.
BlackRock filing a spot Bitcoin ETF using Coinbase custody on the back end raises questions about their motives.
The simplest explanation for BlackRock's move is good business strategy to get their piece of crypto while it's beaten down but not going anywhere.
Crypto is still important as an alternative store value despite being beaten down.
There may be no imminent approval coming, but if there are wins on the legal/litigation side, trad Fi could start.

Bitcoin leads every cycle in crypto.
BTC dominance tends to bottom at the absolute peak of euphoria and is the first thing to catch a bit on the other side.
The secular trend of Bitcoin dominance is down, but cyclically it tends to rise at the beginning of a new cycle.
This might be the start of institutional interest back in crypto after a year and a half.
An ETF would give legitimacy to Bitcoin and drive demand.
The SEC may roll over on Bitcoin while still trying to attack other protocols and crypto assets.
Crypto is a global game, so government sanctions won't necessarily affect it like they would with stocks.
Maxis believe that Bitcoin is directly against the interests of the US government.

Bitcoin is the most directly against the interests of the United States government among all cryptocurrencies.
The SEC has already said that Bitcoin is not a security.
Approval of BlackRock and being brought into regulatory fold drives flows, but it won't turn on floodgates.
Coinbase has been onboarding biggest hedge funds and asset managers in the world.
GBTC and Bido require you to be an accredited investor, which excludes baby boomers who are the largest asset holders in the US as a population right now.
ETF approval and denial dates are major catalysts for market movement.
EDX markets have only four tokens trading on it - Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum Classic, and Zcash. Citadel is its main player for crypto.

EDX is Citadel's main play for crypto and is expected to take a lot of share away from Coinbase and Binance.
The CME volumes are becoming a center of flow where historically has not been.
The traditional model of separating custody, settlement, and exchange will be applied to crypto trading with EDX.
EDX uses the same technology stack as SIDSEC, Citadel Securities, which makes it easier for them to onboard.
It is hard for institutions to step outside the bounds and try something new due to strong controls associated with RIA's and financial advisors.
Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash are included in EDX. These are the same poor assets that Gary Gensler said are not securities except for Bitcoin.
ETH is in the process of being blessed by the tradfi community. Having it on these places is extremely bullish.
Regulatory stuff plays out over the next couple of years.

The NFT market has been inactive since 2019-2020, but may become a good investment category again.
Punks have no utility or fees, but are leveraged ETH plays.
Fund managers are considering buying punks at current prices.
There is concern about liquidity and winners/losers in the NFT market.
OP stack gaining traction for launching NFT marketplaces.
Building an L2 on a centralized L1 with permission validator set does not make sense.

Building an L2 on a centralized L1 with a permission validator set doesn't make sense.
There is a new opportunity to launch a token.
The lowest effort thing that has the highest market cap return will get launched until there are so many of them that they're all worth nothing.
RFP for L2s on finance and all that stuff for B&B.
CZ and Brian should bury the hatchet and come together as the two last men standing in this bear market.
It would be good to see them get on the same page, especially with Coinbase's business being carved up by trad fi.
Respect the pump as Ivan on tech once said. We got to be there for other folks.
No submarines for anybody to shoot in place. Terrible way to go for people trapped in the bottom of the ocean.