The Daily
Russia’s Newest Target: The Global Food Supply
Tue Jul 25 2023Description
The episode covers the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the global food supply, focusing on the disruption caused by the naval blockade and the collapse of a deal between Russia and Ukraine. It explores the role of Turkey as a mediator and the challenges faced by Odessa's port. The tense situation on the Black Sea and Ukraine's risky plan to transport grain are also discussed.
Insights
Russia's Invasion Disrupts Global Food Supply
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to disruptions in the global food supply, particularly in wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, and palm oil production.
Naval Blockade Traps Grain in Ukraine
The naval blockade imposed by Russia on Ukraine's Black Sea ports has trapped millions of tons of grain in the country, exacerbating the food supply issue.
Turkey's Role as Mediator
Turkey played a central role in mediating between Russia and Ukraine, with President Erdogan positioning himself as a mediator and facilitating the signing ceremony for an agreement.
Collapse of Deal and Impact on Odessa's Port
The collapse of the deal between Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on Odessa's port, with bombs falling after the agreement expired and no sign of a negotiated settlement.
Tensions on the Black Sea and Risky Plan
The collapse of the deal has created tensions on the Black Sea, with ships waiting to load up with grain. Ukraine's plan to sail along a corridor is risky due to Russia mining the route.
Russia's Assault on Ukraine's Grain Exports
Russia has expanded its assault on Ukraine's grain exports by using drones to attack a port along the Danube River, signaling its intent to destroy every available way for Ukraine to ship its grain.
Chapters
- Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and the Global Food Supply
- Odessa's Port and the Impact of the Deal Collapse
- Tensions on the Black Sea and the Risky Plan
Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and the Global Food Supply
00:01 - 08:02
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the global food supply.
- Russia and Ukraine produce a significant portion of the world's wheat, barley, corn, sunflower oil, palm oil, and other products.
- The naval blockade imposed by Russia on Ukraine's Black Sea ports has trapped millions of tons of grain in the country.
- The war has made it difficult for Russia to export fertilizer due to sanctions.
- The collapse of the deal between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbates the food supply issue.
- International pressure led to an agreement to restart food shipments.
- Turkey played a central role as it controls access to the Black Sea.
- President Erdogan positioned himself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
- The signing ceremony for the agreement was carefully choreographed to avoid direct interaction between Russian and Ukrainian officials.
- The deal involves UN assistance in easing sanctions on Russia in exchange for safe passage for cargo ships through the Black Sea.
- A joint inspection center will be set up in Istanbul to ensure compliance with smuggling regulations.
- The success of the deal will be crucially tested in Odessa, a major port city in southern Ukraine.
Odessa's Port and the Impact of the Deal Collapse
07:37 - 15:55
- Odessa is the largest port in Ukraine and a vital part of the economy
- During the war, Odessa was relatively unscathed by bombings but suffered from a naval blockade
- The first ship loaded with grain set sail on August 1st, bringing hope to the city
- Ships continued to come into Odessa and grain was transported to the global market
- The agreement allowing Ukrainian grain to be transported through the Black Sea was not renewed by Russia
- Bombs started falling on Odessa's port after the agreement expired
- Russia's actions are seen as economic pressure and using food as a weapon
- Russia hopes to pressure the international community into putting pressure on Ukraine for a negotiated settlement
- A week since the deal collapsed, there is no sign of a negotiated settlement
Tensions on the Black Sea and the Risky Plan
15:43 - 21:46
- The collapse of the deal between Russia and Ukraine has created a tense environment on the Black Sea, with ships waiting at sea to load up with grain.
- There is no credible way out of this situation unless Russia rejoins the initiative, which seems unlikely.
- Ukraine's plan is for ships to sail along a corridor, load up with grain, and dare Russia to shoot an internationally flagged civilian ship. However, this plan is risky as Russia has already been mining the route.
- For this plan to work, Turkey needs to signal that they will protect these ships moving through the corridor. This would be a break with Russia for Turkey.
- Even if Turkey gives the signal, there are complications such as private shipping companies and insurers being reluctant to send ships through mine-infested waters.
- The longer we wait for the situation to play out, the closer we get to another food crisis in Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.
- Russia expanded its assault on Ukraine's grain exports by using drones to attack a port along the Danube River. This signals that Russia wants to destroy every available way for Ukraine to ship its grain.