Hidden Forces
White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan | General Mick Ryan
Mon Jun 26 2023Description
The episode discusses the growing concern of a potential invasion of Taiwan by the People's Liberation Army. General Mick Ryan's latest book, 'White Sun War,' explores this possibility through a fictional account viewed from the perspectives of American, Chinese, and Taiwanese individuals. The conversation covers various scenarios for how the PLA might begin such a campaign, estimated casualties, internal divisions, Japan's importance in defense, and the capacity of the US industrial base. The book aims to apply military trends described in General Ryan's previous book 'War Transformed' and highlight the human aspect of wars.
Insights
The Importance of Technology and Leadership in War
Technologies alone do not win wars; they must be combined with ideas, organizations, and effective leadership. The human nature of war, including leadership and teamwork, is crucial for success.
Desire for Short Wars
Wars have always been desired to be kept short due to the cost and loss of power associated with prolonged conflicts.
Possible Scenarios and Goals in a Conflict Between China and Taiwan
There are various ways in which a conflict between China and Taiwan could unfold, including invasion and economic coercion. China's goals include political takeover of Taiwan and degradation of US primacy in the western Pacific.
Defense Concepts and Challenges for Taiwan
Victory for Taiwan is retaining its political and economic sovereignty. For the US, victory would include what Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, and other Pacific countries want. Taiwan needs a mix of conventional and other capabilities to deter Chinese adventurism.
Logistics and Challenges in a Conflict Over Taiwan
Ground forces are crucial for defending Taiwan as wars are ultimately settled on the ground. America's industrial capacity and stock holdings are important factors in sustaining a prolonged conflict over Taiwan.
US Involvement and Concerns in a Conflict Over Taiwan
The United States needs to respond early and not sit by and observe in the case of Taiwan's sovereignty being threatened. There are concerns about the level of support the United States can depend on from certain countries, such as Japan.
Chapters
- General Mick Ryan and 'White Sun War'
- General Mick Ryan's Military Career
- Themes Explored in 'White Sun War'
- Possible Scenarios and Goals in a Conflict Between China and Taiwan
- Defense Concepts and Challenges for Taiwan
- Logistics and Challenges in a Conflict Over Taiwan
- US Involvement and Concerns in a Conflict Over Taiwan
General Mick Ryan and 'White Sun War'
00:00 - 07:42
- General Mick Ryan joins the podcast to discuss the growing concern of a potential invasion of Taiwan by the People's Liberation Army.
- His latest book, 'White Sun War,' explores this possibility through a fictional account viewed from the perspectives of American, Chinese, and Taiwanese individuals.
- The conversation covers various scenarios for how the PLA might begin such a campaign, estimated casualties, internal divisions, Japan's importance in defense, and the capacity of the US industrial base.
- General Ryan's interest lies in war as a phenomenon and its changing nature due to technology and geopolitics.
- 'White Sun War' aims to apply military trends described in his previous book 'War Transformed' and highlight the human aspect of wars.
- The narrative format allows for wider readership and unconscious absorption of lessons.
General Mick Ryan's Military Career
07:20 - 14:40
- General Ryan had a long career in the military with a strong service ethic and focus on professional development and mastery.
- He commanded at various levels in combat brigades and gained operational experience in East Timor, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
- The speaker had a diverse military career, including commanding combat brigades and working in the Pentagon.
- Operational experiences in East Timor, Iraq, and Afghanistan shaped the speaker's appreciation for the importance of being skilled in their profession.
- The comparison with Indiana Jones highlights the desire for adventure that attracts many young people to join the military.
Themes Explored in 'White Sun War'
14:11 - 21:49
- The book portrays a fictional battle for Taiwan but also explores larger themes such as human miscalculation and fascination with new technologies.
- Technologies alone do not win wars; they must be combined with ideas, organizations, and effective leadership.
- Technology alone does not win wars; it must be combined with ideas and well-led organizations.
- The human nature of war, including leadership and teamwork, is crucial for success.
- Wars have always been desired to be kept short due to the cost and loss of power associated with prolonged conflicts.
Possible Scenarios and Goals in a Conflict Between China and Taiwan
21:19 - 28:46
- There are various ways in which a conflict between China and Taiwan could unfold, including invasion and economic coercion.
- The Chinese would prefer to take Taiwan without fighting, but they are prepared for different scenarios.
- The Chinese perceive internal divisions in Western democracies as a weakness they can exploit.
- Opportunities like Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan could be used by China to institute a blockade.
- China's goals include political takeover of Taiwan and degradation of US primacy in the western Pacific.
Defense Concepts and Challenges for Taiwan
28:19 - 36:04
- Victory for Taiwan is retaining its political and economic sovereignty.
- For the US, victory would include what Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, and other Pacific countries want.
- Japan has a unique potential role in the conflict due to its historical relationship with China.
- The overall defense concept of Taiwan focuses on fighting an asymmetric war.
- Taiwan needs a mix of conventional and other capabilities to deter Chinese adventurism.
Logistics and Challenges in a Conflict Over Taiwan
35:36 - 42:50
- The Chinese would need to put ashore 1 to 200,000 troops to secure a beachhead in Taiwan, but they lack the shipping capacity to do so.
- Ground forces are crucial for defending Taiwan as wars are ultimately settled on the ground.
- The Chinese could use multiple methods to get troops ashore, including airborne and amphibious landings.
- America's industrial capacity and stock holdings are important factors in sustaining a prolonged conflict over Taiwan.
- Transportation connectors and logistic hubs will also play a significant role in the conflict.
US Involvement and Concerns in a Conflict Over Taiwan
42:43 - 47:36
- The United States needs to respond early and not sit by and observe in the case of Taiwan's sovereignty being threatened.
- The US has been working with Taiwan for decades to deter China and would continue to do so.
- There are concerns about the level of support the United States can depend on from certain countries, such as Japan.
- Questions arise about the ability of the United States to defend Taiwan without Japanese support and reliance on bases like Guam.
- Convincing China that the US can bear the costs of a prolonged conflict is crucial.