Modern Wisdom
#749 - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz - The Hidden Statistics That Control The NBA
Sat Feb 24 2024Description
This episode explores the factors that contribute to success in the NBA, including the role of height, genetics, family background, education, self-belief, and the NBA draft. It highlights the advantages and disadvantages of being tall in basketball, the influence of popularity and genetics on basketball success, the impact of family background on NBA players, the significance of college education and self-belief, and the role of natural talent and hard work in sports. The episode also discusses the NBA draft process and how it can predict success. Overall, it emphasizes the complex interplay between various factors in determining success in professional basketball.
Insights
Insight 1
Approximately one in seven American men over 7 feet tall are in the NBA, making it a rare occurrence.
Insight 2
Height plays a significant role in NBA success, with each inch roughly doubling the chances of making it to the NBA.
Insight 3
Players who are extremely tall often have thyroid diseases that cause excessive growth hormone production.
Insight 4
Taller NBA players are generally less athletic compared to shorter players, as they do not need to excel in other areas due to their height advantage.
Insight 5
Height provides a significant advantage in basketball for tasks like rebounding and shot-blocking, despite potential drawbacks in athleticism for taller players.
Insight 6
Basketball popularity in a country influences the number of basketball players it produces.
Insight 7
Volleyball popularity can also impact the production of basketball players due to similar body types required.
Insight 8
Genetics play a significant role in basketball success, with height and other physical traits being highly genetic.
Insight 9
Identical twins have a higher chance of both reaching the NBA, indicating strong genetic influence in basketball abilities.
Insight 10
Skills like hand size and vertical leap are crucial in basketball and are highly valued for player performance.
Chapters
- The Role of Height in NBA Success
- Influence of Popularity and Genetics on Basketball Success
- Family Background and Choking Tendencies in NBA Players
- The Impact of College Education and Self-Belief on NBA Success
- The NBA Draft and Predicting Success
- The Role of Natural Talent and Hard Work in Sports
The Role of Height in NBA Success
00:00 - 13:55
- Approximately one in seven American men over 7 feet tall are in the NBA, making it a rare occurrence.
- Height plays a significant role in NBA success, with each inch roughly doubling the chances of making it to the NBA.
- Players who are extremely tall often have thyroid diseases that cause excessive growth hormone production.
- Taller NBA players are generally less athletic compared to shorter players, as they do not need to excel in other areas due to their height advantage.
- Height provides a significant advantage in basketball for tasks like rebounding and shot-blocking, despite potential drawbacks in athleticism for taller players.
Influence of Popularity and Genetics on Basketball Success
13:25 - 27:46
- Basketball popularity in a country influences the number of basketball players it produces.
- Volleyball popularity can also impact the production of basketball players due to similar body types required.
- Genetics play a significant role in basketball success, with height and other physical traits being highly genetic.
- Identical twins have a higher chance of both reaching the NBA, indicating strong genetic influence in basketball abilities.
- Skills like hand size and vertical leap are crucial in basketball and are highly valued for player performance.
Family Background and Choking Tendencies in NBA Players
27:26 - 34:35
- Having an upper middle class or above family background is a significant advantage in reaching the NBA, especially for African American players.
- African Americans from higher socioeconomic backgrounds tend to have common names, while those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds have unique names.
- NBA players are more likely to come from stable, two-parent middle-class families, contrary to conventional wisdom.
- Basketball players tend to choke under pressure situations, with taller players showing a higher tendency to choke compared to shorter players.
The Impact of College Education and Self-Belief on NBA Success
34:07 - 41:38
- Attending elite colleges like Harvard, Stanford, or Ivy League schools can provide an early advantage in getting into prestigious graduate schools and jobs, but long-term success as an NBA player may not be significantly impacted.
- NBA players who skipped college and entered the draft straight from high school historically outperformed expectations, showing extraordinary inefficiency in the draft process.
- Entrepreneurs like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg who dropped out of school early displayed a bold self-belief that set them apart from others with similar backgrounds.
- Self-belief may play a significant role in success both in basketball and entrepreneurship, leading to outlier performances among individuals who take unconventional paths.
The NBA Draft and Predicting Success
48:08 - 55:07
- The NBA draft serves as an equalizer by allowing teams to potentially build great teams through top picks like Tim Duncan.
- Predicting successful players in the NBA is more accurate compared to other sports, with a high percentage of top players being number one picks.
- There are inefficiencies in the NBA draft evaluation process, where standing leap is more predictive of success than vertical leap.
- In various sports, traits that may seem 'cool' or flashy, like pitch speed in baseball or sprint speed in track and field, can be overvalued compared to other important skills.
- Players who continuously work on improving themselves throughout their career can excel even without having the most natural athletic gifts.
The Role of Natural Talent and Hard Work in Sports
55:02 - 1:02:42
- Natural talent plays a significant role in sports like basketball, where genetic traits such as height can heavily influence success.
- Hard work can make a difference in certain pursuits where genetic advantages are less crucial, such as equestrian riding or skiing.
- Players like Kawhi Leonard and Michael Jordan are examples of individuals who have achieved success through hard work and dedication to their craft.
- The use of data analysis tools like Chat GPT has revolutionized the author's ability to analyze basketball data and write books more efficiently.