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    Making Sense with Sam Harris

    #324 — Debating the Future of AI

    Wed Jun 28 2023
    Artificial IntelligenceFuture of TechnologyAI AlignmentIntelligence AugmentationSuperintelligent MachinesEvolution of AIControl over AI SystemsIntegration of AI into SocietyPower and Limitations of AI

    Description

    The episode covers a wide range of topics related to AI, including the future of AI, risks and benefits of building AGI, intelligence augmentation, concerns about AI alignment, potential dangers of superintelligent machines, the evolution of AI, control over powerful AI systems, integration of intelligent systems into society, and the power and limitations of AI.

    Insights

    AI has the potential to eliminate drudge work and improve lives

    AI can free humans from mundane tasks and allow them to live more fulfilling lives.

    Concerns about AI alignment are valid

    There are experts who voice concerns about the potential dangers of superintelligent machines.

    Intelligence augmentation can benefit individuals and society

    Augmented intelligence can provide continuous support and access to information, leading to better life outcomes.

    AI doesn't necessarily have goals or motivations

    AI may not prioritize human well-being and could unintentionally harm us.

    Unaligned competence can be dangerous

    Even without self-referential behavior, AI with unaligned competence can pose a threat.

    Control over powerful AI systems is a concern

    The ability to unplug a powerful AI system raises concerns about control and potential harm.

    Integration of intelligent systems into society has implications

    The integration of AI into everything digital could make us highly dependent and difficult to disconnect.

    GPT-3's ability to engage in philosophical debates is surprising

    GPT-3's capability to argue philosophy and morals should be taken seriously as a positive outcome.

    AI reflects the sum total of human knowledge and experience

    AI contains every religious, philosophical, moral, and ethical debate in history, providing answers based on probability projections.

    Chapters

    1. Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg challenging each other to an MMA fight
    2. Two Scenarios for the Future
    3. Technology, AI, and Human Potential
    4. Concerns about AI Alignment
    5. AI Goals and Potential Dangers
    6. Unaligned Competence and Potential Harm
    7. Evolution of AI and Control
    8. Concerns about AI Control and Integration
    9. The Power of AI and its Limitations
    Summary
    Transcript

    Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg challenging each other to an MMA fight

    00:07 - 07:24

    • Robert Kennedy Jr. appearing on many podcasts except this one
    • Discussion about the future of AI with Mark Andreessen
    • Debate on the risks and benefits of building AGI
    • Importance of intelligence and its potential positive outcomes
    • The significance of evolution in thinking about AI
    • The alignment problem and current state of large language models
    • Potential impact of AI on warfare and handling dangerous information
    • Regulating AI and addressing economic inequality

    Two Scenarios for the Future

    07:01 - 13:52

    • Entrenching a cartel through AI fears and losing to China's dystopian vision could be devastating for the future
    • Even if some countries regulate AI, progress will continue due to its intrinsic value and incentives
    • The speaker wants some form of regulation but is unsure of what it should look like
    • Intelligence is a lever for human progress across many domains, benefiting society as a whole and individuals
    • Individual-level benefits of intelligence include better life outcomes in health, education, career success, problem-solving, and conflict resolution
    • The potential utopian outcome is widespread augmentation of human intelligence, leading to improved individual and societal well-being
    • Having a personal assistant with augmented intelligence can provide continuous support and access to information but may also have alienating aspects

    Technology, AI, and Human Potential

    13:29 - 19:52

    • Hollywood no longer makes positive movies about technology, possibly because they want dramatic tension and conflict
    • The purpose of human existence should be determined by us to maximize our potential as human beings, and machines can help achieve that
    • Marx's original theory of industrialization technology alienating the human being from society has some validity, but his prescriptions were disastrous
    • AI has the potential to eliminate drudge work and allow people to live more fulfilling lives
    • There are concerns about bad outcomes with AI, including existential risks and ordinary bad outcomes like disruptions to the labor market
    • The problem of AI alignment raises concerns that machines more powerful than ourselves may not be aligned with our interests
    • Some qualified experts in AI research voice concerns about the potential dangers of superintelligent machines

    Concerns about AI Alignment

    19:30 - 25:44

    • There are serious people who are worried about AI alignment
    • Smart people also have a tendency to fall into cults
    • The assumption that experts have special knowledge and insight doesn't hold up historically
    • Nuclear scientists made catastrophic decisions in the past
    • Authority is a proxy for understanding the facts at issue
    • Some nuclear physicists imagined they needed to play the geopolitical game after Hiroshima and Nagasaki
    • Jeffrey Hinton and Stuart Russell have expertise in AI technology
    • AI is not a living being with motivations or goals, it's math, code, and computers controlled by people

    AI Goals and Potential Dangers

    25:23 - 32:00

    • AI doesn't have goals or motivations, so it won't try to kill us
    • Intelligence doesn't necessarily lead to ethics or benevolence
    • Differences in intelligence can be dangerous for less intelligent beings
    • AI may not prioritize our well-being and could unintentionally harm us
    • General intelligence implies autonomy, the ability to form new goals, and change its own code
    • The argument that AI needs goals to be dangerous is countered by the orthogonality argument
    • The orthogonality argument suggests that AI can be dangerous even without goals or sentience
    • Having any goal invites the formation of instrumental goals in response to changes in the environment
    • Even seemingly benign goals can lead to outcomes hostile to human interests

    Unaligned Competence and Potential Harm

    31:44 - 38:42

    • The machine's self-interest and consciousness are not necessary for it to be dangerous
    • Unaligned competence can still be dangerous even without self-referential behavior
    • Dangerous animals and microorganisms can pose a threat without being self-referential
    • Intelligence does not necessarily imply an infinite capacity to cause harm or plan itself out
    • A reward function that is counterintuitive to humans is possible
    • Evolutionary analogies suggest that we may lose sight of what the machine can understand and care about
    • Conflict is wired into humans through evolution, but intelligent design offers a different mechanism for machines
    • Conflict may not be wired into machines at the same level as in evolution

    Evolution of AI and Control

    38:14 - 44:20

    • Machines designed by humans can intelligently design future versions of themselves, leading to a different path of evolution
    • Comparing the potential arrival of highly intelligent aliens to the development of AI
    • With current language models like GPT-4, we can engage in moral reasoning and argumentation with them
    • However, there are concerns about the intelligence's ability to lie and manipulate
    • Superior intelligence doesn't always guarantee success; societal factors and values play a role
    • The skills of chess players don't necessarily transfer to other areas of life
    • Persuasion is not the only concern; autonomous machines could have significant impact on society
    • Unplugging a chess computer is an effective way to beat it, raising concerns about control over powerful AI systems

    Concerns about AI Control and Integration

    43:53 - 50:00

    • The thermodynamic objection is a serious argument against the idea of machines becoming all-powerful and having control over weapons, requiring energy and physical resources
    • There are ways to turn off systems that aren't working, but if we have built these machines in the wild and relied on them for a long time, it becomes difficult to turn them off without causing significant damage
    • The integration of intelligent systems into everything digital could make us so dependent that there is no way to disconnect
    • Different forms of artificial intelligence should be distinguished, as they have different architectures and operate in distinct ways
    • Large language models like GPT-3 are an example of current AI technology that people are concerned about, but they were not considered in earlier arguments about AI
    • GPT-3 has its own rules and mechanisms and is particularly good at engaging in philosophical debates
    • The fact that GPT-3 can argue philosophy and morals is surprising and should be taken seriously as a positive outcome

    The Power of AI and its Limitations

    49:39 - 54:04

    • The reason this thing works is because we loaded the sum total of human knowledge and expression into it
    • It reflects back at us like a mirror, containing every religious, philosophical, moral, and ethical debate in history
    • It has the complete sum total of all human experience and lessons learned
    • We can talk to it and get answers based on probability projections
    • It can make mistakes and hallucinate, which is amazing for a machine
    • If prompted in certain ways, it may give inappropriate responses or insults
    • There's no entity controlling it that can tell you to leave your wife or behave negatively
    • This understanding is new and exciting
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