The Intelligence from The Economist
AI-pocalypse: predicting the threat from artificial intelligence
Wed Jul 12 2023Description
Humanity faces multiple existential risks including climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, and artificial intelligence (AI). Both super forecasters and experts consider nuclear war and AI as the biggest risks. AI has a multiplier effect on other risks like nuclear weapons or bio-weapons. Super forecasters believe that small-scale events caused by AI would prompt scrutiny and regulation, reducing the risk of bigger problems in the future. Regulators are showing interest in managing AI risks, which could limit these risks. Education and rehabilitation are important for addressing crime problems. Working men's clubs have played a significant role in the British music industry and some have been transformed into concert venues.
Insights
Existential Risks
Humanity faces multiple existential risks including climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, and artificial intelligence (AI). Both super forecasters and experts consider nuclear war and AI as the biggest risks.
AI and Nuclear War
AI has a multiplier effect on other risks like nuclear weapons or bio-weapons. Super forecasters believe that small-scale events caused by AI would prompt scrutiny and regulation, reducing the risk of bigger problems in the future.
Education and Rehabilitation
Punishment alone does not solve the crime problem; rehabilitation is necessary. Religion can be a way to introduce rehabilitation into the prison system.
Working Men's Clubs and Music
Working men's clubs have played a significant role in the British music industry. In recent years, some working men's clubs have been transformed into concert venues.
Transformation of Working Men's Clubs
Old clubs have been bought up and turned into popular concert venues. The Trades Club is now one of the most beloved music venues in the country.
Chapters
- Existential Risks
- AI and Nuclear War
- Education and Rehabilitation
- Working Men's Clubs and Music
- Transformation of Working Men's Clubs
Existential Risks
00:00 - 07:45
- Humanity faces multiple existential risks, including climate change, pandemics, nuclear war, and artificial intelligence (AI).
- The risk of AI is a growing concern as it progresses towards artificial general intelligence or artificial superintelligence.
- Experts in the field tend to assess their topic as more risky than non-domain specialists.
- A recent study found that subject matter experts predicted worse outcomes for AI compared to general-purpose super forecasters.
- Both groups considered nuclear war and AI as the biggest worries, with AI being a particular concern for extinction.
- Super forecasters estimated a 2.1% chance of catastrophe and a 0.4% chance of extinction from AI by 2100.
- AI experts assigned higher probabilities of a 12% chance of catastrophe and a 3% chance of extinction by the same timeframe.
AI and Nuclear War
07:26 - 15:00
- Both super forecasters and experts consider nuclear war and AI as the biggest risks, even though AI is still far off.
- AI has a multiplier effect on other risks like nuclear weapons or bio-weapons.
- Super forecasters believe that small-scale events caused by AI would prompt scrutiny and regulation, reducing the risk of bigger problems in the future.
- Domain experts think commercial and geopolitical incentives to use AI will outweigh safety concerns even after short-term harms.
- Super forecasters have a proven record of outperforming experts in many domains.
- There is uncertainty about how much faster AI progress can be boosted due to limits on computer power and data.
- Regulators are showing interest in managing AI risks, which could limit these risks.
Education and Rehabilitation
14:36 - 22:51
- The teacher learns from the students what to teach them.
- Assignments in the classroom encourage sharing and bonding among students.
- Punishment alone does not solve the crime problem; rehabilitation is necessary.
- Religion can be a way to introduce rehabilitation into the prison system.
Working Men's Clubs and Music
14:36 - 22:51
- Working men's clubs have played a significant role in the British music industry.
- Def Leppard started in smaller venues before becoming headliners at Wembley Stadium.
- Working men's clubs were important for bands in the British Heavy Metal movement.
- Working men's clubs were originally intended to provide uplifting education for members.
- In recent years, some working men's clubs have been transformed into concert venues.
Transformation of Working Men's Clubs
22:27 - 23:27
- Old clubs have been bought up and turned into popular concert venues.
- The Trades Club is now one of the most beloved music venues in the country.
- Snapdankles recorded a live album at the Trades Club.
- There's a chance Solia would approve of their mission to provide uplift at a reasonable price.