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    The Race F1 Podcast

    All eyes on Ricciardo as F1 heads to Hungary

    Thu Jul 20 2023
    Red BullDaniel RicciardoYuki SonodaAlpha TauriDriver StrategyMcLarenSergio PerezMax VerstappenLando NorrisHungarian Grand Prix

    Description

    Red Bull's decision to bring back Daniel Ricciardo as a driver has raised expectations for his performance. The team believes Ricciardo can outperform Yuki Sonoda and inject positivity into Alpha Tauri's season. However, recent driver decisions by Red Bull have been difficult to understand, and Ricciardo's comeback could go either way. Red Bull's shift in driver strategy from promoting young talents to seeking experienced drivers has influenced their decision. The performance of McLaren and other teams will also play a role in Red Bull's future driver choices.

    Insights

    Red Bull's Expectations for Ricciardo

    Red Bull expects Daniel Riccardo to perform better than Yuki Sonoda, who was consistently two or three tenths off Sonoda's pace. Riccardo, a multiple Grand Prix winner, will also be expecting more from himself. If Ricciardo cannot outperform Sonoda after a few races, it may hinder his comeback.

    Red Bull's Driver Strategy

    Red Bull's approach to drivers has shifted from promoting young talents to seeking experienced drivers. Max Verstappen's success and the struggles of young drivers alongside him have influenced this change. Red Bull now faces challenges in finding drivers with that extra edge.

    Ricciardo's Performance and Potential

    Daniel Ricciardo's test with Pirelli showed that he still knows how to drive a Formula One car competently. However, his performance at McLaren was not consistent. Returning to the Red Bull family could help Ricciardo perform better, and Red Bull may use his performance as pressure on Sergio Perez to improve.

    Red Bull's Junior Program

    Red Bull's junior program has six drivers in Formula 2, but none have made a significant impact yet. Liam Lawson's chances of making it to Formula One are still decent due to his performance in Japanese Super Formula, where he has three wins in his rookie season.

    Factors Affecting Driver Decisions

    Formula 4 is not a great predictor for success in Formula One. The performance of Perez in the AlphaTauri seat may affect Red Bull's decision on Ricardo in 2024. Replacing Perez with Ricciardo would be driven by sentimentality rather than performance.

    Red Bull's Driver Strategy and Considerations

    There are not many drivers on the grid who would be an instant upgrade over Sergio Perez. Red Bull should also consider Max Verstappen's potential departure after two more seasons and start looking at other drivers like Lando Norris.

    McLaren's Driver Lineup and Performance

    McLaren has strategically secured its driver lineup for the long term, ensuring they will be fine even if Norris is lured away by Red Bull. The Hungarian Grand Prix will reveal McLaren's true performance as it is a track that exposes the weaknesses of their car.

    Performance of Teams at Different Speed Ranges

    McLaren still has work to do with the ground effect regulations, as they perform well at one speed range but not so well at others. Red Bull is expected to be the dominant team and likely to win the Hungarian Grand Prix.

    Chapters

    1. Red Bull's Decision to Bring Back Ricciardo
    2. Red Bull's History of Driver Decisions
    3. Ricciardo's Performance and Potential
    4. Ricciardo's Comeback and Potential Outcomes
    5. Red Bull's Shift in Driver Strategy
    6. Red Bull's Junior Program and Driver Prospects
    7. Factors Affecting Driver Decisions
    8. Red Bull's Driver Strategy and Considerations
    9. McLaren's Driver Lineup and Performance
    10. Performance of Teams at Different Speed Ranges
    Summary
    Transcript

    Red Bull's Decision to Bring Back Ricciardo

    00:02 - 07:32

    • Red Bull expects Daniel Riccardo to perform better than Yuki Sonoda, who was consistently two or three tenths off Sonoda's pace.
    • Riccardo, a multiple Grand Prix winner, will also be expecting more from himself.
    • If Ricciardo cannot outperform Sonoda after a few races, it may hinder his comeback.
    • Red Bull sees this as an opportunity to push Sonoda harder and assess his potential.
    • This move by Red Bull may have sentimental value and aims to inject positivity into Alpha Tauri's season.
    • The decision to bring in Nick de Vries deviates from Red Bull's usual approach of hiring young drivers for Alpha Tauri.
    • There is an emotional interest within Red Bull to see Riccardo succeed and not end his career on a negative note.
    • Recent driver decisions by Red Bull have been difficult to understand, such as dropping de Vries mid-season despite him being considered a slow burn driver.

    Red Bull's History of Driver Decisions

    07:06 - 14:02

    • Red Bull's decision to drop Nyck de Vries mid-season seems harsh, but they believe he wasn't performing well enough.
    • Red Bull has a history of giving drivers who have been beaten or made to look second-rate another chance, like Daniel Kvyat.
    • Red Bull hasn't had the same abundance of talent in their junior team since the rise of other teams and drivers like Verstappen and Ricciardo.
    • The return of Ricciardo to Red Bull could be a good PR move for the team, as he is a popular personality and Netflix star.
    • It's hard to find examples of drivers who were thoroughly beaten by their teammates but went on to perform better at another team. Felipe Massa at Williams is one such example.
    • It's unlikely that Ricciardo will be able to challenge Verstappen if he returns to Red Bull, as Verstappen has only gotten stronger since Ricciardo left.
    • The best outcome for Ricciardo would be to become Verstappen's number two driver again, even though it may not have been his priority when he left Red Bull initially.
    • The importance of the tire test where Ricciardo impressed should not be overstated, as there are many factors that can affect lap times and performance.

    Ricciardo's Performance and Potential

    13:35 - 20:11

    • Daniel Ricciardo's test with Pirelli was a glory run to assess his one lap pace.
    • The test used different tires, so the comparison may not be accurate.
    • Ricciardo showed he still knows how to drive a Formula One car competently.
    • His performance at McLaren was not catastrophic, but he struggled to string together consistent results.
    • Returning to the Red Bull family could help Ricciardo perform better.
    • Red Bull may use Ricciardo's performance as pressure on Sergio Perez to improve.
    • If Red Bull had the choice, they would likely prefer Lando Norris over Alex Albon for their second seat.
    • Hungary and Spa will be important races for Ricciardo to settle in and get familiar with the AlphaTauri car.

    Ricciardo's Comeback and Potential Outcomes

    19:53 - 26:20

    • Daniel Ricciardo needs to do something to prove himself at McLaren.
    • He should show tangible evidence of his improvement and become a better version of himself.
    • Ricciardo's worst season was the first season of the current rules.
    • Teams are struggling with ride heights and performance consistency.
    • If Ricciardo can understand and solve his personal problems from McLaren, there is hope for the second half of the season.
    • In Hungary and Belgium, Ricciardo's performance will determine his comeback credentials.
    • A tenth or two-tenths off Tonoda would be considered a success, but three tenths off would be bad.
    • Ricciardo's comeback could go either way: a successful resurgence like Nico Hulkenberg or a decline like Kimi Räikkönen.

    Red Bull's Shift in Driver Strategy

    26:03 - 33:09

    • Red Bull's approach to drivers has shifted from promoting young talents to seeking experienced drivers.
    • Max Verstappen's success and the struggles of young drivers alongside him have influenced this change.
    • The Red Bull junior program is no longer as dominant as it used to be, with more competition in the market.
    • Red Bull now faces challenges in finding drivers with that extra edge.
    • Liam Lawson's chances of making it to Formula One are still decent due to his performance in Japanese Super Formula.
    • Lawson has three wins in his rookie season, surpassing other successful drivers in Super Formula.
    • Red Bull's junior program includes six drivers in Formula Two, but none have made a significant impact yet.

    Red Bull's Junior Program and Driver Prospects

    32:46 - 39:49

    • Red Bull's junior program has six drivers in Formula 2.
    • The best average qualifying of the Red Bull cars in Formula 2 is 3.6, which is not impressive compared to other drivers.
    • Ayumu Wasa and Lawson are the most interesting prospects for Red Bull in Formula 2.
    • The rest of the drivers in the program are either long-term prospects or in the discard pile.
    • Zane Maloney and Jüri Vips are new Red Bull Junior hires who are performing well but still need improvement.
    • Red Bull's junior program lacks standout drivers at the moment, unlike other teams who have found their own Max Verstappen-like talents.
    • AlphaTauri may consider Daniel Ricciardo as a longer-term option if they don't think Yuki Tsunoda is performing well enough.
    • Having experienced drivers alongside Max Verstappen might be a better strategy for AlphaTauri than relying on young rookies.
    • Recruitment within Formula One seems to be the best option for finding top junior prospects currently.

    Factors Affecting Driver Decisions

    46:14 - 52:08

    • Formula 4 is not a great predictor for success in Formula One.
    • Red Bull is waiting for the next driver who is already making waves as a rookie in a junior category.
    • There is no current belief that Lawson will be senior team material.
    • Pierre Gasly was given the opportunity to join the senior team after proving himself.
    • Lawson could be hanging around for an opportunity, but he has been overlooked for an old guard driver.
    • The performance of Perez in the AlphaTauri seat may affect Red Bull's decision on Ricardo in 2024.
    • Perez has been struggling recently and there are questions about his future with Red Bull.
    • Replacing Perez with Ricciardo would be driven by sentimentality rather than performance.
    • There is no need to replace Perez as long as he continues to recover well during races.
    • Red Bull would only consider replacing Perez if there was a hot new driver available.
    • Albon may not be an instant upgrade on Perez at Williams.

    Red Bull's Driver Strategy and Considerations

    51:45 - 58:47

    • There are not many drivers on the grid who would be an instant upgrade over Sergio Perez.
    • The decision to sign Daniel Ricciardo may have been slightly emotional, considering his past performances and simulator results.
    • Red Bull benefits commercially from having Perez in the team due to his popularity in Mexico and sponsorship support.
    • Perez's underperformance in qualifying is not a major concern for Red Bull as long as he performs well in races.
    • Red Bull needs to keep an eye on the competition's progress and consider if they need a high-performing second driver to protect their advantage.
    • If Red Bull feels that their advantage is diminishing, they may consider replacing Perez with a better performing driver like Ricciardo.
    • Red Bull should also consider Max Verstappen's potential departure after two more seasons and start looking at other drivers like Lando Norris.
    • Replacing Perez is not necessary at the moment if Red Bull is confident in their current situation.
    • McLaren made strategic moves to secure their driver lineup for the future by signing Lando Norris and aggressively pursuing Oscar Piastri.

    McLaren's Driver Lineup and Performance

    58:21 - 1:05:27

    • McLaren has strategically secured its driver lineup for the long term, ensuring they will be fine even if Norris is lured away by Red Bull.
    • Alex Palou's impressive performance in IndyCar suggests he can also be a successful Formula One driver.
    • Red Bull's driver strategy with a 34-year-old Daniel Ricciardo does not seem like a long-term plan.
    • Ricciardo's performance will determine his future in Formula One, and if he does well, it will restore his credibility.
    • The Hungarian Grand Prix will reveal McLaren's true performance as it is a track that exposes the weaknesses of their car.
    • If McLaren can compete with Ferrari and Mercedes at Hungary, it will validate their recent upgrades and set the direction for the rest of the season.
    • McLaren understands their limitations and expects Hungary to be a challenging race for them.
    • They aim to improve their average performance over time and address weaknesses that show up in different places.

    Performance of Teams at Different Speed Ranges

    1:05:07 - 1:09:57

    • McLaren still has work to do with the ground effect regulations, as they perform well at one speed range but not so well at others.
    • Aston Martin is strong at low speed and will likely perform well in Hungary.
    • Ferrari's lower speed performance is better than their high speed performance, but they are concerned about tire degradation in the race.
    • Mercedes is an all-rounder but lacks rear grip and struggles at low speed.
    • Red Bull is expected to be the dominant team and likely to win the Hungarian Grand Prix.
    • Perez has had a difficult time at the Hungarian Grand Prix in the past, but if he executes correctly, he could secure a second-place finish.
    • The Hungarian Grand Prix circuit is more of a medium-low to medium-speed track now rather than strictly low-speed like Monaco without walls.
    • The upcoming races in Hungary and Spa will provide a broad perspective on where McLaren stands compared to other teams.
    • There is no consistent challenger to Red Bull's dominance in Formula One.
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