This Week in Startups

Tim Urban on the path to AGI and trends in tech history | E1779

Tue Jul 18 2023

TechnologyFilmDiversityControversyTED TalksSpeaking EngagementsHuman HistoryArtificial IntelligenceExistential ThreatsPreparationsSocietyChallengesDigital AgeFutureUniverseTrendsMediaTrustMisinformation

Description

The episode covers a wide range of topics, including the impact of technology on film watching, diversity and controversy in movies, TED talks and speaking engagements, condensing human history into a book, the rise of artificial intelligence, existential threats and preparations, the impact of technology on society, challenges of the digital age, the future of AI and the universe, trends in society and media, media, trust, and misinformation, misinformation and trust in media, and community notes and trustworthiness.

Insights

The Impact of Technology on Film Watching

Growing up with smartphones and social media has affected young people's ability to focus on watching films without distractions.

Diversity and Controversy in Movies

The princess industrial complex in movies like Frozen has become more diverse and inclusive.

TED Talks and Speaking Engagements

TED talks are stressful and have a lot of pressure.

Condensing Human History into a Book

Taking someone from an earlier page to a later one would be mind-blowing due to technological progress.

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

AI could spread misinformation, take down power grids, and overload the internet.

Existential Threats and Preparations

Preparations for potential disasters, such as hoarding supplies and investing in generators, are becoming more common.

The Impact of Technology on Society

Our brains are optimized for survival and reproduction in ancient times, leading to tribalism and short-term focus.

Challenges of the Digital Age

The rapid pace of technological advancement has created a mismatch between our biology and the capabilities of smartphones and social media platforms.

The Future of AI and the Universe

Building self-sustaining AI could prevent collapse and extinction.

Trends in Society and Media

The impact of social media and existential threats on current trends.

Chapters

The Impact of Technology on Film Watching
Diversity and Controversy in Movies
TED Talks and Speaking Engagements
Condensing Human History into a Book
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
Existential Threats and Preparations
The Impact of Technology on Society
Challenges of the Digital Age
The Future of AI and the Universe
Trends in Society and Media
Media, Trust, and Misinformation
Misinformation and Trust in Media
Community Notes and Trustworthiness

Summary

Transcript

The Impact of Technology on Film Watching

00:00 - 07:06

In the early days of the internet, chat rooms and sending emails were mind-blowing technologies.
Certain movies leave a lasting impact and make you want to watch them again immediately.
Patience in watching a movie can lead to a more rewarding experience with plot twists or cathartic moments.
Movies like 'Transformers' and 'The Flash' prioritize constant action over character development and storytelling.
Growing up with smartphones and social media has affected young people's ability to focus on watching films without distractions.
Excessive dopamine hits from constant smartphone use can lead to anxiety and depression.
It is recommended to delay giving children access to social media until they are older, around 16 or 17 years old.

Diversity and Controversy in Movies

06:37 - 13:07

The princess industrial complex in movies like Frozen has become more diverse and inclusive.
Some characters in live-action adaptations of Disney movies have been portrayed as gay, causing controversy.
There is speculation that one of the main characters in Frozen may be revealed as not straight in future films.
Many musicals have been written by gay men, and the theater community is predominantly gay.

TED Talks and Speaking Engagements

12:54 - 19:23

TED talks are stressful and have a lot of pressure.
The speaker only gets one take and any mistakes are permanent.
The speaker may feel miserable if they didn't do well in their TED talk.
Doing talks helps the speaker stay up to date on the topic they're speaking about.
The speaker did a talk on AI for Rick Caruso's top executives.
Both speakers remember when there was no internet or smartphones and how mind-blowing it was when they first saw them.
They discuss the acceleration of change in their generation compared to previous generations.
The person being interviewed compliments the other person's ability to frame things as their superpower.

Condensing Human History into a Book

19:00 - 25:35

They discuss the idea of condensing all of human history into a thousand-page book, with most pages being about hunter-gatherers.
Almost 950 pages of a thousand-page book on human history is about hunter-gatherers.
Around page 975 is the beginning of recorded history with the advent of writing.
History only occupies 25 pages, and AD starts at page 993.
The advancements from one page to the next become increasingly significant.
Taking someone from an earlier page to a later one would be mind-blowing due to technological progress.
Basic knowledge that we take for granted today was unknown just one page ago.
Page one thousand represents the industrial revolution and rapid paradigm shifts.

The Rise of Artificial Intelligence

25:11 - 31:50

C3PO and other AI contemporaries are becoming more advanced.
The exponential progress of AI has made everything seem silly.
AI has the potential to be broadly generally smart like humans.
Artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) is already prevalent in everyday life.
When artificial general intelligence (AGI) surpasses human intelligence, it will be a game-changer.
Comparing the current technological progress to historical advancements reveals its uniqueness and significance.
The rapid pace of change and the power of technology make this era more confusing and potentially dangerous than previous ones.

Existential Threats and Preparations

31:34 - 38:21

Existential threats to humanity have increased due to advancements in technology.
Examples of human-created existential threats include pandemics, nuclear weapons, and climate change.
AI could spread misinformation, take down power grids, and overload the internet.
The speed at which AI can cause chaos is a cause for concern.
Preparations for potential disasters, such as hoarding supplies and investing in generators, are becoming more common.
History has shown that a single person or a small group can have a significant impact on the world.
The ease of creating bio weapons and advanced AI raises concerns about future threats.

The Impact of Technology on Society

37:57 - 44:58

Super side is a new way to get great designs done quickly, offering a fully managed end-to-end service.
Subscribers get access to an amazing dedicated design team and an easy-to-use platform for requesting designs.
Super side hires the top 1% of designers from around the world.
The rapid pace of technological advancement has created a mismatch between our biology and the capabilities of smartphones and social media platforms.
Our brains are optimized for survival and reproduction in ancient times, leading to tribalism and short-term focus.
The future holds exciting possibilities if we can overcome challenges like self-help, technology's impact on our biology, and tribalism.

Challenges of the Digital Age

44:37 - 51:35

Human brain is not designed for an advanced civilization, leading to mismatches and misfires in societal norms and ethics.
Social media and rapid changes lead to the breakdown of journalist integrity and rampant tribalism.
The exponential growth of computing power compared to human brains allows for accelerated progress.
Our brains struggle to understand compound growth and tend to underestimate future change.
The unprecedented nature of AI makes it difficult to predict its impact on society.
AI instances compounding can create a timeline that is beyond human comprehension.

The Future of AI and the Universe

51:16 - 57:14

The future is beyond the understanding of chimpanzees.
Building self-sustaining AI could prevent collapse and extinction.
The absence of other alien species AI may suggest that AI does not have an interest in colonizing the universe.
Elon Musk's mission with x AI is to understand the true nature of the universe.
The Big Bang theory suggests that everything was condensed into an infinitely small point and expanded from there.
The newer theory of inflation proposes a sequence of events leading to the current universe.
There could be tiers of multiverses with different histories but the same physics.
The question arises whether this is an actual physical universe or a simulation, which could explain the Fermi paradox.

Trends in Society and Media

56:59 - 1:03:51

Observing aliens and the perspective it gives on life.
Tribalism and trust issues in the United States.
Conspiracy theories gaining traction with advertising and social media.
Descent into primitive behavior, tribalism, and coercive movements.
Questioning if current trends are a passing fad or a societal upheaval.
The impact of social media and existential threats on current trends.
The rise of demagogues like Trump due to changing rhetoric and communication methods.
Addressing underlying trends to prevent future demagogue movements.

Media, Trust, and Misinformation

1:03:30 - 1:10:23

Structural changes to media and social media have contributed to the rise of certain phenomena.
The rapid pace of change creates chaos, demagogues, and mobs.
Authoritarians around the world often struggle to maintain stability and societal advancement.
Trust in traditional institutions like politicians, teachers, clergy, and media has declined.
Some people trust Amazon more than politicians or news outlets like The New York Times or Fox News.
Long-form discussions among experts on podcasts may help counter manipulation and provide a sense of shared reality.
Shared trust in truth-making institutions like academia, science, media, and government is crucial for societal stability.
The percentage of people who distrust these institutions has increased over time.
Journalists have become less trustworthy due to biased reporting and lack of verification processes.
Long-form podcasts can serve as a source of trusted information in the absence of reliable mainstream sources.
The internet allows for adaptation and the emergence of new platforms or a return to professionalism in traditional institutions.

Misinformation and Trust in Media

1:10:01 - 1:16:54

The technique of blending fragments of news together is similar to the technique perfected by the KGB.
The KGB ran a disinformation campaign in the 80s to make people believe that the United States created AIDS in a laboratory.
Journalists often use unnamed sources and flipping publications to spread information.
This can lead to incorrect information being spread and a loss of trust in the source.
Incentive structures in media have shifted towards catering to specific tribes rather than accuracy.
There needs to be a mechanism for penalizing inaccuracy and bias, possibly through AI algorithms.
Implementing AI systems that provide additional context or accuracy ratings could help combat misinformation.
Elon Musk has discussed using community notes on Twitter as a way to determine trustworthy sources.

Community Notes and Trustworthiness

1:16:25 - 1:17:32

A paper was discussed about a community notes system and the trustworthiness of people.
The paper used a sophisticated algorithm and trust system to prevent gaming.
Tim Urban's book is recommended for its mind-blowing content.
Tim Urban is praised as one of the greatest thinkers and writers of our time.
Congratulations on the baby.